Yeah, it seems like even if it’s possible to take back Crimea with conventional weapons, there’s an extremely high chance of a Russian retaliation or denial strategy that features tactical nukes or something else. We can hope that there’s a Stanislav Petrov 2.0 in the ranks somewhere I guess...
Do you have a strong sense of which weapons systems, drones, etc. would be most decisive on the conventional front? Other than the few that I’ve mentioned in the post, I’m still pretty naive to what’s important here.
Artillery is the biggest conventional threat. Indirect fire, combined with drones or better spotting would lead to the largest amount of casualties.
This is unconventional(Information Operations), but I would expect that the better question is what are the fighters willing to accept? If they’re getting shelled everyday with more and more accurate artillery rounds that is going to eat away at whatever morale they have left. It’s far easier to walk away from a war in which you’re guaranteed certain death and go AWOL than to stick around as people around you are whittled down. Ukrainian fighters seem to be all in regarding this, as they have stood against Russian artillery the whole time. Russian fighters? I get the sense that they’re not as well informed as they should be. Information seems to be siloed off differently(and this is just from following the news), as I wouldn’t -if I were a dictator- want the real truth of the matter to reach a demoralized front line, months after they were supposed to be in a short decision mission.
Yeah, it seems like even if it’s possible to take back Crimea with conventional weapons, there’s an extremely high chance of a Russian retaliation or denial strategy that features tactical nukes or something else. We can hope that there’s a Stanislav Petrov 2.0 in the ranks somewhere I guess...
Do you have a strong sense of which weapons systems, drones, etc. would be most decisive on the conventional front? Other than the few that I’ve mentioned in the post, I’m still pretty naive to what’s important here.
Artillery is the biggest conventional threat. Indirect fire, combined with drones or better spotting would lead to the largest amount of casualties.
This is unconventional(Information Operations), but I would expect that the better question is what are the fighters willing to accept? If they’re getting shelled everyday with more and more accurate artillery rounds that is going to eat away at whatever morale they have left. It’s far easier to walk away from a war in which you’re guaranteed certain death and go AWOL than to stick around as people around you are whittled down. Ukrainian fighters seem to be all in regarding this, as they have stood against Russian artillery the whole time. Russian fighters? I get the sense that they’re not as well informed as they should be. Information seems to be siloed off differently(and this is just from following the news), as I wouldn’t -if I were a dictator- want the real truth of the matter to reach a demoralized front line, months after they were supposed to be in a short decision mission.