This is an interesting datapoint, though… just to be clear, I would not consider the Manhattan project a success on the dimension of wisdom or even positive impact.
They did sure build some powerful technology, and they also sure didn’t seem to think much about whether it was good to build that powerful technology (with many of them regretting it later).
I feel like the argument of “the only other community that was working on technology of world-ending proportions, which to be clear, did end up mostly just running full steam ahead at building the world-destroyer, was also very young” is not an amazing argument against criticism of EA/AI-Safety.
It is a data point against a different kind of criticism, that sounds more like “EA is a bunch of 20-something dilettantes running around having urgent conversations instead of doing anything in the world”. I hear that flavor of criticism more than “EA might build the world destroyer”, and I suspect it is more common in the world.
I haven’t seen many people accuse EAs of not doing anything (which is kind of a soft vote of confidence.) I thought the criticisms were more along the lines of arrogance/directing money wrong places/Influencing beind closed doors (AI)/ not focusing on systematic change. More that the things we do are bad/useless but less that we are only talking?
Pretty uncertain though
I suppose I’m on the GHD bent though. Do you have any any articles to share along these lines?
My super rough impression here is many of the younger people on the project were the grad students of the senior researchers on the project; such an age distribution seems like it would’ve been really common throughout most academia if so.
In my perception, the criticism levelled against EA is different. The version I’ve seen people argue revolves around EA lacking the hierarchy of experience required to restrain the worst impulses of having a lot of young people in concentration. The Manhattan Project had an unusual amount of intellectual freedom for a military project, sure, but it also did have a pretty defined hierarchy that would’ve restrained those impulses. Nor do I think EA necessarily lacks leadership, but I think it does lack a permission structure.
And I think that gets to the heart of the actual criticism. An age-based one is, well, blatantly ageist and not worth paying attention to. But that lack of a permission structure might be important!
Another aspect here is that scientists in the 1940s are at a different life stage/might just be more generally “mature” than people of a similar age/nationality/social class today. (eg most Americans back then in their late twenties probably were married and had multiple children, life expectancy at birth in the 1910s is about 50 so 30 is middle-aged, society overall was not organized as a gerontocracy, etc).
Alex Wellerstein notes the age distribution of Manhattan Project employees:
Sometimes people criticize EA for having too many young people; I think that this age distribution is interesting context for that.
[Thanks to Nate Thomas for sending me this graph.]
This is an interesting datapoint, though… just to be clear, I would not consider the Manhattan project a success on the dimension of wisdom or even positive impact.
They did sure build some powerful technology, and they also sure didn’t seem to think much about whether it was good to build that powerful technology (with many of them regretting it later).
I feel like the argument of “the only other community that was working on technology of world-ending proportions, which to be clear, did end up mostly just running full steam ahead at building the world-destroyer, was also very young” is not an amazing argument against criticism of EA/AI-Safety.
It is a data point against a different kind of criticism, that sounds more like “EA is a bunch of 20-something dilettantes running around having urgent conversations instead of doing anything in the world”. I hear that flavor of criticism more than “EA might build the world destroyer”, and I suspect it is more common in the world.
I haven’t seen many people accuse EAs of not doing anything (which is kind of a soft vote of confidence.) I thought the criticisms were more along the lines of arrogance/directing money wrong places/Influencing beind closed doors (AI)/ not focusing on systematic change. More that the things we do are bad/useless but less that we are only talking?
Pretty uncertain though
I suppose I’m on the GHD bent though. Do you have any any articles to share along these lines?
I was thinking about the “no systemic change” thing mainly, and no articles I can think of, just a general vibe
yeah I totally agree
My super rough impression here is many of the younger people on the project were the grad students of the senior researchers on the project; such an age distribution seems like it would’ve been really common throughout most academia if so.
In my perception, the criticism levelled against EA is different. The version I’ve seen people argue revolves around EA lacking the hierarchy of experience required to restrain the worst impulses of having a lot of young people in concentration. The Manhattan Project had an unusual amount of intellectual freedom for a military project, sure, but it also did have a pretty defined hierarchy that would’ve restrained those impulses. Nor do I think EA necessarily lacks leadership, but I think it does lack a permission structure.
And I think that gets to the heart of the actual criticism. An age-based one is, well, blatantly ageist and not worth paying attention to. But that lack of a permission structure might be important!
It’s notable in that respect that the chart is for the “scientific employees.”
That’s true I’m assuming that doesn’t include managers, accountants, support staff who might be older on average?
Another aspect here is that scientists in the 1940s are at a different life stage/might just be more generally “mature” than people of a similar age/nationality/social class today. (eg most Americans back then in their late twenties probably were married and had multiple children, life expectancy at birth in the 1910s is about 50 so 30 is middle-aged, society overall was not organized as a gerontocracy, etc).
Probably wartime has this effect on people, too
Similar for the Apollo 11 Moon landing: average age in the control room was 28.
I think age / inexperience is contributing to whatever the hell I’m experiencing here.
Not enough mentors telling them darn kids to tuck their shirts in.