I don’t know if this subject is still of interest to you, but Scott wrote a detailed review of the subject here; he concluded with essentially a 50% probability that we are seeing significant declines.
There is also a Manifold market on the subject here.
I don’t know if this subject is still of interest to you, but Scott wrote a detailed review of the subject here; he concluded with essentially a 50% probability that we are seeing significant declines.
There is also a Manifold market on the subject here.