[epistemic status: i’ve spent about 5-20 hours thinking by myself and talking with rai about my thoughts below. however, i spent fairly little time actually writing this, so the literal text below might not map to my views as well as other comments of mine.]
IMO, Sentinel is one of the most impactful uses of marginal forecasting money.
some specific things i like about the team & the org thus far:
nuno’s blog is absolutely fantastic — deeply excellent, there are few that i’d recommend higher
rai is responsive (both in terms of time and in terms of feedback) and extremely well-calibrated across a variety of interpersonal domains
samotsvety is, far and away, the best forecasting team in the world
why would i seek anything but takes from the best forecasters in the world?
i think i’d be willing to pay at least $5/week for this, though i expect many folks in the EA community would be happy to pay 5x-10x that. their blog is currently free (!!)
i’d recommend skimming whatever their latest newsletter was to get a sense of the content/scope/etc
linch’s piece sums up my thoughts around strategy pretty well
do i have higher-order philosophical commitments that swamp whatever Sentinel does? (for ex: short timelines, animal suffering, etc)
will Sentinel be able to successfully scale up?
conditional on Sentinel successfully forecasting a relevant GCR, will Sentinel successfully prevent or mitigate the GCR?
will Sentinel be able to successfully forecast a relevant GCR?
how likely are the category of GCRs that sentinel might mitigate to actually come about? (vs no GCRS or GCRS that are totally unpredictable/unmitigateable)
samotsvety is, far and away, the best forecasting team in the world
Hey Saul, this is very kind but this seems overstated. The Swift Centre, Good Judgment Inc, Metaculus Pros are pretty good as well :). I think the advantage we have over them is focus though.
[epistemic status: i’ve spent about 5-20 hours thinking by myself and talking with rai about my thoughts below. however, i spent fairly little time actually writing this, so the literal text below might not map to my views as well as other comments of mine.]
IMO, Sentinel is one of the most impactful uses of marginal forecasting money.
some specific things i like about the team & the org thus far:
nuno’s blog is absolutely fantastic — deeply excellent, there are few that i’d recommend higher
rai is responsive (both in terms of time and in terms of feedback) and extremely well-calibrated across a variety of interpersonal domains
samotsvety is, far and away, the best forecasting team in the world
sentinel’s weekly newsletter is my ~only news source
why would i seek anything but takes from the best forecasters in the world?
i think i’d be willing to pay at least $5/week for this, though i expect many folks in the EA community would be happy to pay 5x-10x that. their blog is currently free (!!)
i’d recommend skimming whatever their latest newsletter was to get a sense of the content/scope/etc
linch’s piece sums up my thoughts around strategy pretty well
i have the highest crux-uncertainty and -elasticity around the following, in (extremely rough) order of impact on my thought process:
do i have higher-order philosophical commitments that swamp whatever Sentinel does? (for ex: short timelines, animal suffering, etc)
will Sentinel be able to successfully scale up?
conditional on Sentinel successfully forecasting a relevant GCR, will Sentinel successfully prevent or mitigate the GCR?
will Sentinel be able to successfully forecast a relevant GCR?
how likely are the category of GCRs that sentinel might mitigate to actually come about? (vs no GCRS or GCRS that are totally unpredictable/unmitigateable)
Hey Saul, this is very kind but this seems overstated. The Swift Centre, Good Judgment Inc, Metaculus Pros are pretty good as well :). I think the advantage we have over them is focus though.