My understanding is that because climate change is usually talked about in terms of global average temperature changes, a change of 1ºC does not usually mean you’ll feel a 1ºC change. Both because of a) the boring reason that average change hides a lot of variance, and b) because these differences are a true global average, rather than population-density weighted. (so for example, it might well be the case that the places with more humans, will experience on average larger temperature increases).
So how much temperature change does 1ºC global average change feel, anthropically? Both in terms of average temperature increases and peak temperature increases. And if 1ºC global average change feels like X.YºC, do we expect this to scale roughly linearly with temperature increases within the usual range?
I mention this because I suspect I and others intuitively underestimate climate impact because we think 2 degrees doesn’t “feel” like a lot.
(Might be a bit of a digression, but:)
My understanding is that because climate change is usually talked about in terms of global average temperature changes, a change of 1ºC does not usually mean you’ll feel a 1ºC change. Both because of a) the boring reason that average change hides a lot of variance, and b) because these differences are a true global average, rather than population-density weighted. (so for example, it might well be the case that the places with more humans, will experience on average larger temperature increases).
So how much temperature change does 1ºC global average change feel, anthropically? Both in terms of average temperature increases and peak temperature increases. And if 1ºC global average change feels like X.YºC, do we expect this to scale roughly linearly with temperature increases within the usual range?
I mention this because I suspect I and others intuitively underestimate climate impact because we think 2 degrees doesn’t “feel” like a lot.
he does mention this in the report, there’s more tail risk at higher temps, and averages can be problematic, and will see if this comes up. Thanks