I included links to my working drafts to help understand the projects better, but please keep in mind that they contain statements that I will change my mind on after further research or contemplation. Also, they are not very tidy.
Year-by-year analysis of corporate campaigns (~50% done, draft)
A collection of estimates of how many animals are kept in captivity for various purposes. E.g., meat, fur, wool, experiments, zoos, fish stocking, silk, etc.
Numbers of wild animals affected by humans in various ways (~30% done, draft)
Another collection of estimates. E.g. how many wild fish we catch, how many animals are killed by domestic cats, how many birds die after colliding with man-made objects, etc.
Surveys about veg*ism in the U.S. (not started)
I previously examined surveys about veganism and vegetarianism in the U.S. here. Results were conflicting. Now I want to conduct my own surveys to try to figure out what’s happening. This SSC post provides a hypothesis about why 2-6% of people claim to be vegetarians in surveys but then >60% of them report eating meat on at least one of two days for which they were asked to fill a dietary recall survey. I want to test it by seeing how many people will claim that they eat a breatharian diet (eat no solids at all). I think that ~3% of people will claim that they do it because they answer questions without reading, or purposefully answer incorrectly, or misunderstand the question. This would explain why surveys that simply ask people “Are you a vegan?” find such unreasonably high percentages. I also want to test other survey designs in a similar way and then make a better survey on the subject.
Trends of vegetarianism and veganism in the UK (not started)
Similar to what I wrote for the U.S. (link) but for the UK. I want to see if there will be similar patterns.
Relatedly, I put some of my posts that I decided are not good enough to go on the EA Forum on a wordpress site here (I’ve never advertised this website before).
I strongly recommend you add more of these posts to the Forum—in particular, I really like the post on ways that cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading.
Thanks. I think I’m afraid to publish posts if I’m unsure they are good/useful. But I will consider publishing some these, especially ways that cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading.
Yes, it made me a bit more willing to post here. But I put another week of work into that post before publishing. And I worked 2 more days on that post that I posted a couple of days ago which is also from my blog. I’m sure that some other posts from that blog are worth publishing after I put more work into them but I’m unsure if this is what I should be spending my time on. E.g., I don’t want to post Cost-effectiveness of trap-neuter-return programs for cats on the EA forum without doing more to make sure it’s correct (e.g. reading recent related research by other EAs). I’m unsure if I want to post Should you donate to a fund-raising meta-charity? without looking into the current situation of these charities (e.g. if there is room for more funding) and just generally thinking more about the topic. I guess it would be fine to still post it with a disclaimer but I would be afraid of giving people the wrong advice and also hurting my credibility. And I don’t think posting it on the shortform would make much impact but I’d still care about saying the right things so I don’t want to bother with that.
I found saulius’ post useful in different ways than Chris Smith’s. I especially like that it covers mistakes that seem more “basic” and easier to avoid/correct for. But “The Optimizer’s Curse” is also worth looking at.
I just skimmed some of the recent posts on your website and liked them! What makes you think that they’re not good enough to be posted here? They definitely seem less comprehensive than some of your (very comprehensive) posts here, but still more than good enough to post here.
It’s been cool to see some of these go up on the Forum since you posted this!
I’d be interested to see the veg*ism survey if you still think you might work on it at some point. And of course, I’m happy to look over drafts of anything you write if you want feedback.
I included links to my working drafts to help understand the projects better, but please keep in mind that they contain statements that I will change my mind on after further research or contemplation. Also, they are not very tidy.
Year-by-year analysis of corporate campaigns (~50% done, draft)
This is basically an appendix to my cost-effectiveness estimate of corporate cage-free and broiler campaigns. Will contain graphs that will show how many animals were affected by campaigns each year, how cost-effectiveness has changed, and why we shouldn’t overreact to the analysis.
Numbers of animals slaughtered (~40% done, draft)
A collection of estimates of how many animals are kept in captivity for various purposes. E.g., meat, fur, wool, experiments, zoos, fish stocking, silk, etc.
Numbers of wild animals affected by humans in various ways (~30% done, draft)
Another collection of estimates. E.g. how many wild fish we catch, how many animals are killed by domestic cats, how many birds die after colliding with man-made objects, etc.
Surveys about veg*ism in the U.S. (not started)
I previously examined surveys about veganism and vegetarianism in the U.S. here. Results were conflicting. Now I want to conduct my own surveys to try to figure out what’s happening. This SSC post provides a hypothesis about why 2-6% of people claim to be vegetarians in surveys but then >60% of them report eating meat on at least one of two days for which they were asked to fill a dietary recall survey. I want to test it by seeing how many people will claim that they eat a breatharian diet (eat no solids at all). I think that ~3% of people will claim that they do it because they answer questions without reading, or purposefully answer incorrectly, or misunderstand the question. This would explain why surveys that simply ask people “Are you a vegan?” find such unreasonably high percentages. I also want to test other survey designs in a similar way and then make a better survey on the subject.
Trends of vegetarianism and veganism in the UK (not started)
Similar to what I wrote for the U.S. (link) but for the UK. I want to see if there will be similar patterns.
Relatedly, I put some of my posts that I decided are not good enough to go on the EA Forum on a wordpress site here (I’ve never advertised this website before).
I strongly recommend you add more of these posts to the Forum—in particular, I really like the post on ways that cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading.
Thanks. I think I’m afraid to publish posts if I’m unsure they are good/useful. But I will consider publishing some these, especially ways that cost-effectiveness estimates can be misleading.
[8 months on] …well, that went very well, haha. I believe it’s now got the 8th most karma on the forum.
Has this updated you to being more willing to post on the forum?
Also, for ones that you’re still not sure are worth posting, have you considered posting them as shortforms?
Yes, it made me a bit more willing to post here. But I put another week of work into that post before publishing. And I worked 2 more days on that post that I posted a couple of days ago which is also from my blog. I’m sure that some other posts from that blog are worth publishing after I put more work into them but I’m unsure if this is what I should be spending my time on. E.g., I don’t want to post Cost-effectiveness of trap-neuter-return programs for cats on the EA forum without doing more to make sure it’s correct (e.g. reading recent related research by other EAs). I’m unsure if I want to post Should you donate to a fund-raising meta-charity? without looking into the current situation of these charities (e.g. if there is room for more funding) and just generally thinking more about the topic. I guess it would be fine to still post it with a disclaimer but I would be afraid of giving people the wrong advice and also hurting my credibility. And I don’t think posting it on the shortform would make much impact but I’d still care about saying the right things so I don’t want to bother with that.
cf. The Optimizer’s Curse & Wrong-Way Reductions
I found saulius’ post useful in different ways than Chris Smith’s. I especially like that it covers mistakes that seem more “basic” and easier to avoid/correct for. But “The Optimizer’s Curse” is also worth looking at.
I just skimmed some of the recent posts on your website and liked them! What makes you think that they’re not good enough to be posted here? They definitely seem less comprehensive than some of your (very comprehensive) posts here, but still more than good enough to post here.
It’s been cool to see some of these go up on the Forum since you posted this!
I’d be interested to see the veg*ism survey if you still think you might work on it at some point. And of course, I’m happy to look over drafts of anything you write if you want feedback.