Nuclear winter is a very unlikely, highly conjunctive theory which requires many independent things to ALL happen perfectly, which are already individually suspect. E.g. that cities will all firestorm after being hit by airburst detonations (which itself relies on assumptions like adequate fuel loading per square meter, collapsed structures from the air blast not suffocating the oxygen, etc.), that this will burn in a way producing lots of black carbon, that this carbon will be nearly all lofted into the stratosphere, that this will block a high percentage of sunlight, that the carbon will persist there for many years, that it has to happen during the summer in warmer climates, etc.
Altogether, I think it’s unlikely enough a possibility to be ignored in planning, which removes that utility of New Zealand, although it may still have value as a sheltered, unaffected place to escape the chaos and societal collapse of other countries following nuclear war.
I’m not sure if the bolthole idea is referring to an escape for EAs in particular or relocating as many people as possible in general, but the former is something I’ve considered which I think needs more discussion. Keeping valuable EAs (AI alignment researchers in particular) alive both through the initial exchange and the chaotic period which follows is extremely valuable to improve the world that follows a nuclear conflict, especially to improve the relative trajectories of AI alignment and capabilities by ensuring the built-up base of alignment knowledge & talent is not destroyed.
As such, people should be developing protocols to evacuate those researchers preemptively at times when nuclear war looks likely to ensure they’re not killed in the initial detonations (or better yet, permanently relocate them to places with no or much lower risk of nuclear attack in the first place); as well as have preplanned long-term locations where they can ride out fallout and societal collapse/civil violence, stocked with enough food for years etc. I believe it’s fine if such locations are in the US given no nuclear winter, and it would be difficult to travel to somewhere like NZ in the post-attack environment anyway.
I expect that a US first strike against Russia would involve around 1,300 nuclear weapons used exclusively on counterforce targets (90% confidence interval: 670 – 1,700), and that a Russian first strike against the US/NATO would involve around 1,100 nuclear weapons (90% confidence interval: 750 – 1,200), also exclusively used on counterforce targets.
I expect that a counterforce second strike would look pretty similar to a first strike, though it’s possible that a second strike by Russia would be somewhat smaller than its first strike […]
In effect, there’s a 90% chance that the actual change in temperature caused by a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia will be between −1.6 degrees Celsius and −4.2 degrees Celsius at its most severe. Similarly, there’s a 90% chance that the actual change in precipitation caused by a US-Russia nuclear exchange would be between −9.2% and −24% during the worst period of climate disturbances. […]
By my estimation, a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia would lead to a famine that would kill 5.5 billion people in expectation (90% confidence interval: 2.7 billion to 7.5 billion people).
Don’t buy the stuff about expecting a famine that kills billions at all? Especially since she didn’t seem to have dug into the actual criticisms of the nuclear winter theory in her post sequence, e.g. the independent components of the theory. I think very likely (>90%) there won’t be any change in temperature at all, which will be the case if any of those components fail. And as I understand it she has since updated towards being less bullish on it since those posts, and people who succeeded her at RP don’t think nuclear winter is that likely either.
>I’m not sure if the bolthole idea is referring to an escape for EAs in particular or relocating as many people as possible in general,
Perhaps “bolthole” is not quite the term I’m looking for, at least in the sense of primarily being about relocating individuals. Rather, I’m using it as a catch-all term for all “post-apocalyptic” preparations. A seed bank and/or data bank located in New Zealand would be good examples.
Nuclear winter is a very unlikely, highly conjunctive theory which requires many independent things to ALL happen perfectly, which are already individually suspect. E.g. that cities will all firestorm after being hit by airburst detonations (which itself relies on assumptions like adequate fuel loading per square meter, collapsed structures from the air blast not suffocating the oxygen, etc.), that this will burn in a way producing lots of black carbon, that this carbon will be nearly all lofted into the stratosphere, that this will block a high percentage of sunlight, that the carbon will persist there for many years, that it has to happen during the summer in warmer climates, etc.
Altogether, I think it’s unlikely enough a possibility to be ignored in planning, which removes that utility of New Zealand, although it may still have value as a sheltered, unaffected place to escape the chaos and societal collapse of other countries following nuclear war.
I’m not sure if the bolthole idea is referring to an escape for EAs in particular or relocating as many people as possible in general, but the former is something I’ve considered which I think needs more discussion. Keeping valuable EAs (AI alignment researchers in particular) alive both through the initial exchange and the chaotic period which follows is extremely valuable to improve the world that follows a nuclear conflict, especially to improve the relative trajectories of AI alignment and capabilities by ensuring the built-up base of alignment knowledge & talent is not destroyed.
As such, people should be developing protocols to evacuate those researchers preemptively at times when nuclear war looks likely to ensure they’re not killed in the initial detonations (or better yet, permanently relocate them to places with no or much lower risk of nuclear attack in the first place); as well as have preplanned long-term locations where they can ride out fallout and societal collapse/civil violence, stocked with enough food for years etc. I believe it’s fine if such locations are in the US given no nuclear winter, and it would be difficult to travel to somewhere like NZ in the post-attack environment anyway.
What do you think about the conclusions of How bad would nuclear winter caused by a US-Russia nuclear exchange be? - EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org) ?
Don’t buy the stuff about expecting a famine that kills billions at all? Especially since she didn’t seem to have dug into the actual criticisms of the nuclear winter theory in her post sequence, e.g. the independent components of the theory. I think very likely (>90%) there won’t be any change in temperature at all, which will be the case if any of those components fail. And as I understand it she has since updated towards being less bullish on it since those posts, and people who succeeded her at RP don’t think nuclear winter is that likely either.
>I’m not sure if the bolthole idea is referring to an escape for EAs in particular or relocating as many people as possible in general,
Perhaps “bolthole” is not quite the term I’m looking for, at least in the sense of primarily being about relocating individuals. Rather, I’m using it as a catch-all term for all “post-apocalyptic” preparations. A seed bank and/or data bank located in New Zealand would be good examples.