I’m not sure that even under the scenario you describe animal welfare doesn’t end up dominating human welfare, except under a very specific set of assumptions. In particular, you describe ways for human-esque minds to explode in number (propagating through space as machines or as emulations). Without appropriate efforts to change the way humans perceive animal welfare (wild animal welfare in particular), it seems very possible that 1) humans/machine descendants might manufacture/emulate animal-minds (and since wild animal welfare hasn’t been addressed, emulate their suffering), 2) animals will continue to exist and suffer on our own planet for millennia, or 3) taking an idea from Luke Hecht, there may be vastly more wild “animals” suffering already off-Earth—if we think there are human-esque alien minds, than there are probably vastly more alien wild animals. The emulated minds that descend from humans may have to address cosmic wild animal suffering.
All three of these situations mean that even when the total expected welfare of the human population is incredibly large, the total expected welfare (or potential welfare) of animals may also be incredibly large, and it isn’t easy to see in advance that one would clearly outweigh the other (unless animal life (biological and synthetic) is eradicated relatively early in the timeline compared to the propagation of human life, which is an additional assumption).
Regardless, if all situations where humans are bound to the solar system and many where they leave result in animal welfare dominating, then your credence that animal welfare will continue to dominate should necessarily be higher than your credence that humans will leave the solar system. So neglecting animal welfare on the grounds that humans will dominate via space exploration seems to require further information about the relative probabilities of the various situations, multiplied by the relative populations in these situations.
I haven’t attempted any particular expected value calculation, but it doesn’t seem to me like you can conclude immediately that simply because human welfare has the potential to be infinite or extravagantly large, the potential value of working on human welfare is definitely higher. The latter claim instead requires the additional assertion that animal welfare will not also be incredibly or infinitely large, which as I describe above requires further evidence. And, you would also have to account for the fact that wild animal welfare seems vastly more important currently and will be for the near future in that expected value calculation (which I take from your objection being focused on the future, you might already believe?).
If this is your primary objection, at best it seems like it ought to marginally lower your credence that animal welfare will continue to dominate. It strikes me as an extremely narrow possibility among many many possible worlds where animals continue to dominate welfare considerations, and therefore in expectation, we still should think animal welfare will dominate into the future. I’d be interested in what your specific credence is that the situation you outlined will happen?
neglecting animal welfare on the grounds that humans will dominate via space exploration seems to require further information about the relative probabilities of the various situations, multiplied by the relative populations in these situations.
I took the argument to mean that artificial sentience will outweigh natural sentience (eg. animals). You seem to be implying that the relevant question is whether there will be more human sentience, or more animal sentience, but I’m not quite sure why. I would predict that most of the sentience that will exist will be neither human or animal.
Ah—I meant human, emulated or organic, since Rob referred to emulated humans in his comment. For less morally weighty digital minds, the same questions RE emulating animal minds apply, though the terms ought to be changed.
Also it seems worth noting that much the literature on longtermism, outside Foundation Research Institute, isn’t making claims explicitly about digital minds as the primary holders of future welfare, but just focuses on the future organic human populations (Greaves and MacAskill’s paper, for example), and similar sized populations to the present day human population at that.
Hey Rob!
I’m not sure that even under the scenario you describe animal welfare doesn’t end up dominating human welfare, except under a very specific set of assumptions. In particular, you describe ways for human-esque minds to explode in number (propagating through space as machines or as emulations). Without appropriate efforts to change the way humans perceive animal welfare (wild animal welfare in particular), it seems very possible that 1) humans/machine descendants might manufacture/emulate animal-minds (and since wild animal welfare hasn’t been addressed, emulate their suffering), 2) animals will continue to exist and suffer on our own planet for millennia, or 3) taking an idea from Luke Hecht, there may be vastly more wild “animals” suffering already off-Earth—if we think there are human-esque alien minds, than there are probably vastly more alien wild animals. The emulated minds that descend from humans may have to address cosmic wild animal suffering.
All three of these situations mean that even when the total expected welfare of the human population is incredibly large, the total expected welfare (or potential welfare) of animals may also be incredibly large, and it isn’t easy to see in advance that one would clearly outweigh the other (unless animal life (biological and synthetic) is eradicated relatively early in the timeline compared to the propagation of human life, which is an additional assumption).
Regardless, if all situations where humans are bound to the solar system and many where they leave result in animal welfare dominating, then your credence that animal welfare will continue to dominate should necessarily be higher than your credence that humans will leave the solar system. So neglecting animal welfare on the grounds that humans will dominate via space exploration seems to require further information about the relative probabilities of the various situations, multiplied by the relative populations in these situations.
I haven’t attempted any particular expected value calculation, but it doesn’t seem to me like you can conclude immediately that simply because human welfare has the potential to be infinite or extravagantly large, the potential value of working on human welfare is definitely higher. The latter claim instead requires the additional assertion that animal welfare will not also be incredibly or infinitely large, which as I describe above requires further evidence. And, you would also have to account for the fact that wild animal welfare seems vastly more important currently and will be for the near future in that expected value calculation (which I take from your objection being focused on the future, you might already believe?).
If this is your primary objection, at best it seems like it ought to marginally lower your credence that animal welfare will continue to dominate. It strikes me as an extremely narrow possibility among many many possible worlds where animals continue to dominate welfare considerations, and therefore in expectation, we still should think animal welfare will dominate into the future. I’d be interested in what your specific credence is that the situation you outlined will happen?
I took the argument to mean that artificial sentience will outweigh natural sentience (eg. animals). You seem to be implying that the relevant question is whether there will be more human sentience, or more animal sentience, but I’m not quite sure why. I would predict that most of the sentience that will exist will be neither human or animal.
Ah—I meant human, emulated or organic, since Rob referred to emulated humans in his comment. For less morally weighty digital minds, the same questions RE emulating animal minds apply, though the terms ought to be changed.
Also it seems worth noting that much the literature on longtermism, outside Foundation Research Institute, isn’t making claims explicitly about digital minds as the primary holders of future welfare, but just focuses on the future organic human populations (Greaves and MacAskill’s paper, for example), and similar sized populations to the present day human population at that.