I attach less than 50% in this belief, but probably higher than the existing alternative hypotheses:
FTX Foundation will not get submissions that change its mind, but it would have gotten them if only they had [fill in the blank]
Given 6 months or a year for people to submit to the contest rather than 3 months.
I think forming coherent worldviews take a long time, most people have day jobs or school, and even people who have the flexibility to take weeks/ a month off to work on this full-time probably need some warning to arrange this with their work. Also some ideas take time to mull over so you benefit from calendar time spread even when the clock time takes the same.
As presented, I think this prize contest is best suited for people who a) basically have the counterarguments in mind/in verbal communication but never bothered to write it down yet or b) have a draft argument sitting in a folder somewhere and never gotten around to publishing it. In that model, the best counterarguments are already “laying there” in somebody’s head or computer and just need some incentives for people to make them rigorous.
However, if the best counterarguments are currently confused or nonexistent, I don’t think ~3 months calendar time from today is enough for people to discover them.
I think I understand why you want short deadlines (FTX FF wants to move fast, every day you’re wrong about AI is another day where $$s and human capital is wasted and we tick towards either AI or non-AI doom). But at the same time, I feel doom-y about your ability to solicit many good novel arguments.
I attach less than 50% in this belief, but probably higher than the existing alternative hypotheses:
Given 6 months or a year for people to submit to the contest rather than 3 months.
I think forming coherent worldviews take a long time, most people have day jobs or school, and even people who have the flexibility to take weeks/ a month off to work on this full-time probably need some warning to arrange this with their work. Also some ideas take time to mull over so you benefit from calendar time spread even when the clock time takes the same.
As presented, I think this prize contest is best suited for people who a) basically have the counterarguments in mind/in verbal communication but never bothered to write it down yet or b) have a draft argument sitting in a folder somewhere and never gotten around to publishing it. In that model, the best counterarguments are already “laying there” in somebody’s head or computer and just need some incentives for people to make them rigorous.
However, if the best counterarguments are currently confused or nonexistent, I don’t think ~3 months calendar time from today is enough for people to discover them.
I think I understand why you want short deadlines (FTX FF wants to move fast, every day you’re wrong about AI is another day where $$s and human capital is wasted and we tick towards either AI or non-AI doom). But at the same time, I feel doom-y about your ability to solicit many good novel arguments.
Maybe FTX-FF could commit in advance to, if the grand prizes for this contest are not won this year, re-run this contest over next year?