FYI I was also confused by the probability metric, reading after your edits. I read it multiple times and couldn’t get my head round it.
“Probability of event occurring given protests—Probability of event occurring without protests”
The former number should be higher than the latter (assuming you think that the protests increased the chance of it happening) and yet in every case, the first number you present is lower, e.g.:
“De-nuclearization in Kazakhstan in early 1990s (5-15%*)”
(Another reason it’s confusing is that they read like ranges or confidence intervals or some such, and it’s not until you get to the end of the list that you see a definition meaning something else.)
Sorry that this is still confusing. 5-15 is the confidence interval/range for the counterfactual impact of protests, i.e. p(event occurs with protests) - p(event occurs without protests) = somewhere between 5 and 15. Rather than p(event occurs with protests) = 5, p(event occurs without protests) = 15, which wouldn’t make sense.
That is a good point, thanks for that Jobst. I’ve made some edits in light of what you’ve said.
FYI I was also confused by the probability metric, reading after your edits. I read it multiple times and couldn’t get my head round it.
“Probability of event occurring given protests—Probability of event occurring without protests”
The former number should be higher than the latter (assuming you think that the protests increased the chance of it happening) and yet in every case, the first number you present is lower, e.g.:
“De-nuclearization in Kazakhstan in early 1990s (5-15%*)”
(Another reason it’s confusing is that they read like ranges or confidence intervals or some such, and it’s not until you get to the end of the list that you see a definition meaning something else.)
Sorry that this is still confusing. 5-15 is the confidence interval/range for the counterfactual impact of protests, i.e. p(event occurs with protests) - p(event occurs without protests) = somewhere between 5 and 15. Rather than p(event occurs with protests) = 5, p(event occurs without protests) = 15, which wouldn’t make sense.