I would have liked to see the models and graphs (presumably the most important part of the paper), but the images don’t load and the links to the models don’t work:
However, it can be said with 99%-100% confidence that funding interventions for losing industry now is more cost effective than additional funding for AGI safety beyond the expected $3 billion.
If you don’t actually mean such confidence (which I assume you don’t because 1. it’s crazy and 2. you mention model uncertainty elsewhere), can you please not say it?
Thanks for the feedback. We are working on the figures. I struggled with how to phrase this. Of course we can never believe anything with 100% confidence, but the software rounds to 100%. So maybe phrasing it as “99-99+%” confidence? Also, it sounds like we should phrase it as “the model result”, rather than “it can be said”?
I would have liked to see the models and graphs (presumably the most important part of the paper), but the images don’t load and the links to the models don’t work:
Also:
If you don’t actually mean such confidence (which I assume you don’t because 1. it’s crazy and 2. you mention model uncertainty elsewhere), can you please not say it?
Thanks for the feedback. We are working on the figures. I struggled with how to phrase this. Of course we can never believe anything with 100% confidence, but the software rounds to 100%. So maybe phrasing it as “99-99+%” confidence? Also, it sounds like we should phrase it as “the model result”, rather than “it can be said”?
I mostly meant phrasing it as “the model result”, the “99-100%” is fine if it’s clear that it’s from a model and not your considered belief.
Yes, it seems there are recurrent problems with uploading of images (cf.).