I think I, and maybe others, are still confused about the point of your top-level comment. Simon Knutsson’s argument is against utilitarianism, and I think Richard Ngo wanted to see if there was a good counter-argument against it from a utilitarian perspective, or if a utilitarian just has to “bite the bullet”. It seems like the motivation for both people were to try to figure out whether utilitarianism is the right moral philosophy / correct normative ethics.
Your reply doesn’t seem to address their motivation, which is why I’m confused. (If utilitarianism is the right moral philosophy then it would give the right action guidance even if one was 100% sure of it and other considerations such as contractarianism didn’t apply, so it seems beside the point to talk about contractarianism and overconfidence.) Is the point that utilitarianism probably isn’t right, but some other form of consequentialism is? If so, what do you have in mind?
That’s why the very first words of my comment were “I don’t identify as a utilitarian.”
I appreciate that, and as I noted, I think this is fine. :-)
I just wanted to flag this because it took me some time to clarify whether you were replying based on 1) moral uncertainty/other frameworks, or 2) instrumental considerations relative to pure utilitarianism. I first assumed you were replying based on 2) (as Brian suggested), and I believe many others reading your answer might draw the same conclusion. But a closer reading made it clear to me you were primarily replying based on 1).
That’s why the very first words of my comment were “I don’t identify as a utilitarian.”
I think I, and maybe others, are still confused about the point of your top-level comment. Simon Knutsson’s argument is against utilitarianism, and I think Richard Ngo wanted to see if there was a good counter-argument against it from a utilitarian perspective, or if a utilitarian just has to “bite the bullet”. It seems like the motivation for both people were to try to figure out whether utilitarianism is the right moral philosophy / correct normative ethics.
Your reply doesn’t seem to address their motivation, which is why I’m confused. (If utilitarianism is the right moral philosophy then it would give the right action guidance even if one was 100% sure of it and other considerations such as contractarianism didn’t apply, so it seems beside the point to talk about contractarianism and overconfidence.) Is the point that utilitarianism probably isn’t right, but some other form of consequentialism is? If so, what do you have in mind?
I appreciate that, and as I noted, I think this is fine. :-)
I just wanted to flag this because it took me some time to clarify whether you were replying based on 1) moral uncertainty/other frameworks, or 2) instrumental considerations relative to pure utilitarianism. I first assumed you were replying based on 2) (as Brian suggested), and I believe many others reading your answer might draw the same conclusion. But a closer reading made it clear to me you were primarily replying based on 1).