The idea that was suggested to me by an EA policy person was not that other fund members veto but that external experts veto.
The hypothetical story is that a fund manager who is not an expert in policy who is struggling to evaluate a policy grant that they worry is high-risk might invite a bunch of external experts to give a view and have a veto and, given the risk, if any of those experts veto they might choose not to fund it.
This then goes wrong if and experts veto for very different reasons (more likely if “there’s a surprising amount of disagreement in what projects [experts] think are good”). In the worse case it could be that almost every policy grant gets vetoed by one expert or another and none get funded. This could significantly raise the bar and it might take a while for a fund manager to notice.
Honestly I have no idea if this actually happens or ever works like this. If this is not how things work then great! Mostly trying to bring out into the open the various tools that people can use to evaluate more risky projects and to flag the potential uses and also downsides for discussion.
Oh, hmm, I think we rarely request feedback from more than one or two experts, so I would be somewhat surprised if this has a large effect. But yeah, definitely in biorisk and policy, I think if the expert we ping tends to have a negative take, we probably don’t fund it (and now that you say it, it does feel a bit more like we are asking more experts on policy grants than other grants, so there might be some of the effect that you are describing going on).
If these experts regularly have a large impact on these decisions, that’s an argument for transparency about them. This is a factor that could of course be outweighed by other considerations (ability to give frank advice, confidentiality, etc). Perhaps might be worth asking them how they’d feel about being named (with no pressure attached, obviously).
Also, can one volunteer as an expert? I would—and I imagine others (just on this post, perhaps Ian and Sam?) would too.
I don’t think hiring for this is easy. You need aligned people with good judgement, significant policy experience, and counterfactual impact that is equal to or worse impact than working for LTFF. Plus, ideally good communication ability and a bit of creativity too.
Sure, but if there are 4 people out there with CS backgrounds who fit the bill there are probably a few without who do too.
The other thing is the idea that “policy” is this general thing seems a little off to me. Someone who knows a thing or two about Congress may not have context or network to evaluate something aimed at some corner of the executive branch, to say nothing of evaluating a policy proposal oriented towards another country.
The idea that was suggested to me by an EA policy person was not that other fund members veto but that external experts veto.
The hypothetical story is that a fund manager who is not an expert in policy who is struggling to evaluate a policy grant that they worry is high-risk might invite a bunch of external experts to give a view and have a veto and, given the risk, if any of those experts veto they might choose not to fund it.
This then goes wrong if and experts veto for very different reasons (more likely if “there’s a surprising amount of disagreement in what projects [experts] think are good”). In the worse case it could be that almost every policy grant gets vetoed by one expert or another and none get funded. This could significantly raise the bar and it might take a while for a fund manager to notice.
Honestly I have no idea if this actually happens or ever works like this. If this is not how things work then great! Mostly trying to bring out into the open the various tools that people can use to evaluate more risky projects and to flag the potential uses and also downsides for discussion.
Oh, hmm, I think we rarely request feedback from more than one or two experts, so I would be somewhat surprised if this has a large effect. But yeah, definitely in biorisk and policy, I think if the expert we ping tends to have a negative take, we probably don’t fund it (and now that you say it, it does feel a bit more like we are asking more experts on policy grants than other grants, so there might be some of the effect that you are describing going on).
If these experts regularly have a large impact on these decisions, that’s an argument for transparency about them. This is a factor that could of course be outweighed by other considerations (ability to give frank advice, confidentiality, etc). Perhaps might be worth asking them how they’d feel about being named (with no pressure attached, obviously).
Also, can one volunteer as an expert? I would—and I imagine others (just on this post, perhaps Ian and Sam?) would too.
or funders could, you know, always hire more fund managers who have policy experience!
I don’t think hiring for this is easy. You need aligned people with good judgement, significant policy experience, and counterfactual impact that is equal to or worse impact than working for LTFF. Plus, ideally good communication ability and a bit of creativity too.
Sure, but if there are 4 people out there with CS backgrounds who fit the bill there are probably a few without who do too.
The other thing is the idea that “policy” is this general thing seems a little off to me. Someone who knows a thing or two about Congress may not have context or network to evaluate something aimed at some corner of the executive branch, to say nothing of evaluating a policy proposal oriented towards another country.
Hmm I think this makes the problem harder, not easier.