Most people are the silent majority, who just want peace and don’t have leverage to make it happen. That applies to the Palestinians and Israelis, most of whom don’t know what to do, but want things to be peaceful and allow them to live happy lives. Unfortunately, political leaders on both sides have incentives to ensure that the easiest path to their near-term goals of staying in power involve continuing the cycle of violence.
The critical path in my mind is prosperity—if Palestinians had a median income of Jordanians and Iraqis, double the current level, or of Egyptians, which triple the current level, it wouldn’t matter that median Israelis had four or five times as much. But Iran has probably successfully maneuvered Israeli into undermining the Saudi deal, and I think that Israel’s narrow short term needs will continue the cycle.
Most people are the silent majority, who just want peace and don’t have leverage to make it happen. That applies to the Palestinians and Israelis, most of whom don’t know what to do, but want things to be peaceful and allow them to live happy lives.
Do you have a source for this? My impression was that a lot of Gazans were quite supportive of violence. For example, from the top results on google for ‘Gaza public opinion’, earlier this year:
See my reply to Yovel, but preferring violence to the status quo is very different than not wanting peace. And given that they keep getting bombed by Israel, it makes sense that they don’t want to simply lay down arms—but per the last link, a majority supported continuing the ceasefire.
The last attack was completely unprecedented in terms of cruelty and mercilessness towards civilians. I don’t know how much previous surveys about support for Hamas (who were perceived as “resisting occupation in the only way they can”) can tell us now.
Yeah—there’s an old marxist take that looks like “religion is a fake proxy battle for eminent domain and ‘separate but equal’ style segregation” that I always found compelling. I can’t imagine it’s 100% true, but Yovel implies that it’s 100% false.
First, election of Hamas and Hamas affiliated seats is very different than support for Hamas. These were local representative elections, not a national party election like Israel. So the 58% number seems misleading. And the reason there have not been elections since 2006 has much more to do with Hamas being unwilling to have elections than you seem to think
Second, I think there is a critical difference between support for a political group and support for violence. Most Gazans did not want violence, and a majority of Palestinians, when polled, would accept peace under various terms—they no longer support a two state solution with the current borders, though they did a decade ago, especially because such a deal still leaves Israel in control of the borders. However, there are a variety of scenarios which include concessions Israel is unwilling to offer, for political and/or security reasons, that would have a solid majority of Palestinians supporting a deal.
Strongly disagree.
Most people are the silent majority, who just want peace and don’t have leverage to make it happen. That applies to the Palestinians and Israelis, most of whom don’t know what to do, but want things to be peaceful and allow them to live happy lives. Unfortunately, political leaders on both sides have incentives to ensure that the easiest path to their near-term goals of staying in power involve continuing the cycle of violence.
The critical path in my mind is prosperity—if Palestinians had a median income of Jordanians and Iraqis, double the current level, or of Egyptians, which triple the current level, it wouldn’t matter that median Israelis had four or five times as much. But Iran has probably successfully maneuvered Israeli into undermining the Saudi deal, and I think that Israel’s narrow short term needs will continue the cycle.
Do you have a source for this? My impression was that a lot of Gazans were quite supportive of violence. For example, from the top results on google for ‘Gaza public opinion’, earlier this year:
and
See my reply to Yovel, but preferring violence to the status quo is very different than not wanting peace. And given that they keep getting bombed by Israel, it makes sense that they don’t want to simply lay down arms—but per the last link, a majority supported continuing the ceasefire.
The last attack was completely unprecedented in terms of cruelty and mercilessness towards civilians. I don’t know how much previous surveys about support for Hamas (who were perceived as “resisting occupation in the only way they can”) can tell us now.
Sure, if David is basing his view on more recent data he is welcome to share it.
Yeah—there’s an old marxist take that looks like “religion is a fake proxy battle for eminent domain and ‘separate but equal’ style segregation” that I always found compelling. I can’t imagine it’s 100% true, but Yovel implies that it’s 100% false.
The Hamas holds 56% of the Palestinian Legislative Council seats, elected democratically in 2006. Neither Presidency nor legislative council elections have not been held since 2006, because Hamas would win them.
What evidence do you have for a silent, peaceful majority?
First, election of Hamas and Hamas affiliated seats is very different than support for Hamas. These were local representative elections, not a national party election like Israel. So the 58% number seems misleading. And the reason there have not been elections since 2006 has much more to do with Hamas being unwilling to have elections than you seem to think
Second, I think there is a critical difference between support for a political group and support for violence. Most Gazans did not want violence, and a majority of Palestinians, when polled, would accept peace under various terms—they no longer support a two state solution with the current borders, though they did a decade ago, especially because such a deal still leaves Israel in control of the borders. However, there are a variety of scenarios which include concessions Israel is unwilling to offer, for political and/or security reasons, that would have a solid majority of Palestinians supporting a deal.