There are somewhere between 2000 and 20000 EAs Between .1% and 2% of EAs contribute outside their areas of expertise There is a .1% to 1% chance that they will contribute a really valuable article in time for a change to happen.
How are you getting the third estimate? I’d note that I think multiplying very small and large numbers together, as you do here, might lead to overestimation. And I think this might be the case, since you are estimating that a “valuable article” has a chance of being worth 30M
Incidentally, squiggle interprets 0 to 30000000 as a normal[1], so I think that your estimation would change (and become more accurate) if you use 1 to 30000000, or rather truncateRight(1 to 30000000, 100M). If you do so, you get much more reasonable estimates (mean is now 8M, and the chance of getting ~0 impact is 50%):
I think that a better bet might be to go through the top articles and see in which cases the article itself led to value being created, and using that historical frequency to arrive at an estimate.
How are you getting the third estimate? I’d note that I think multiplying very small and large numbers together, as you do here, might lead to overestimation. And I think this might be the case, since you are estimating that a “valuable article” has a chance of being worth 30M
Incidentally, squiggle interprets 0 to 30000000 as a normal[1], so I think that your estimation would change (and become more accurate) if you use 1 to 30000000, or rather truncateRight(1 to 30000000, 100M). If you do so, you get much more reasonable estimates (mean is now 8M, and the chance of getting ~0 impact is 50%):
I think that a better bet might be to go through the top articles and see in which cases the article itself led to value being created, and using that historical frequency to arrive at an estimate.
This incident is probably bad enough that we should probably be throwing an error here. I added an issue here.
You’re right and I will change.
I wish forum articles supported forks and pull requests. I’d definitely incorporate yours.