I donāt have strong hypotheses why people āmostly supportā something they also want treated with such care. My weak ones would be āpeople like technology but when asked about what the government should do, want them to keep them safe (remove biggest threats).ā For example, Australians support getting nuclear submarines but also support the ban on nuclear weapons. I donāt necessarily see this as a contradictionāākeep me safeā priorities would lead to both. I donāt know if our answers would have changed if we made the trade-offs more salient (e.g., hereās what youād lose if we took this policy action prioritising risks). Interested in suggestions for how we could do that better.
Itād be easy for us to run in other countries. Weāll put the data and code online soon. If someoneās keen to run the āget it in the hands of people who want to use itā piece, we could also do the ārun the survey and make a technical report oneā. Itās all in R so the marginal cost of another country is low. Weād need access to census data to do the statistical adjustment to estimate population agreement (but that should be easy to see if possible).
Thanks. Hmm. The vibe Iām getting from these answers is P(extinction)>5% (which is higher than the XST you linked).
Ohh thatās great. Weāre starting to do significant work in India and would be interested in knowing similar things there. Any idea of what itād cost to run there?
Iāll look into it. The census data part seems okay. Collecting a representative sample would be harder (e.g., literacy rates are lower, so I donāt know how to estimate responses for those groups).
That makes sense. We might do some more strategic outreach later this year where a report like this would be relevant but for now i donāt have a clear use case in mind for this so probably better to wait. Approximately how much time would you need to run this?
Thanks Seb. Iām not that surprisedāpublic surveys in the Existential Risk Persuasion tournament were pretty high (5% for AI). I donāt think most people are good at calibrating probabilities between 0.001% and 10% (myself included).
I donāt have strong hypotheses why people āmostly supportā something they also want treated with such care. My weak ones would be āpeople like technology but when asked about what the government should do, want them to keep them safe (remove biggest threats).ā For example, Australians support getting nuclear submarines but also support the ban on nuclear weapons. I donāt necessarily see this as a contradictionāākeep me safeā priorities would lead to both. I donāt know if our answers would have changed if we made the trade-offs more salient (e.g., hereās what youād lose if we took this policy action prioritising risks). Interested in suggestions for how we could do that better.
Itād be easy for us to run in other countries. Weāll put the data and code online soon. If someoneās keen to run the āget it in the hands of people who want to use itā piece, we could also do the ārun the survey and make a technical report oneā. Itās all in R so the marginal cost of another country is low. Weād need access to census data to do the statistical adjustment to estimate population agreement (but that should be easy to see if possible).
Thanks. Hmm. The vibe Iām getting from these answers is P(extinction)>5% (which is higher than the XST you linked).
Ohh thatās great. Weāre starting to do significant work in India and would be interested in knowing similar things there. Any idea of what itād cost to run there?
Iāll look into it. The census data part seems okay. Collecting a representative sample would be harder (e.g., literacy rates are lower, so I donāt know how to estimate responses for those groups).
That makes sense. We might do some more strategic outreach later this year where a report like this would be relevant but for now i donāt have a clear use case in mind for this so probably better to wait. Approximately how much time would you need to run this?
Our project took approximately 2 weeks FTE for 3 people (most was parallelisable). Probably the best reference class.
Very helpful. Iāll keep it in mind if the use case/āneed emerges in the future.