I create effective, scalable educational programs. I want them to help people make better decisions, become more empathic, and more effective in their work (esp. their research). Iām an awarded educator, receiving national awards, international senior fellowships, and the highest honour from my university. I also have a strong academic research background: Iām Chief Investigator on $3.7m of competitive, industry-partnered research grants; have published in the Scimago #1 journals for psychology, applied psychology, ageing, paediatrics, education (three times, see #1, #2, #3), and sport science (twice, see #1 & #2); and my work is cited almost 4x the world average (according to InCites; all data as of June 2021).
Michael Noetel šø
Karma: 671
How do you feel about this framework?
Amazing. Thank you!
Yes all data and code are on the osf, but to my chagrin theyāre in spss. Yes good observation re the strawberry, and the imprecision around the outcome.
If tryĀing to comĀmuĀniĀcate about AI risks, make it vivid
Our project took approximately 2 weeks FTE for 3 people (most was parallelisable). Probably the best reference class.
Richard I really love your writing, but as a parent I find it so hard to just sit and read stuff. 95% of the forumās content I get via the podcast feeds. Now, I donāt expect everyone to go full Experimental History or Joe Carlsmith and audio narrate each post, but unless youāre wanting to keep things on Substack turf, you might consider cross-posting the full thing here (like Benthamās Bulldog did for the critique of the wired article). I donāt ask this of everyone, so please consider this a compliment: I love your work and want it in my ears.[1]
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That sounded weirder than I meant it to
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Hanania gives some interesting arguments for why here: https://āāwww.richardhanania.com/āāp/āāeffective-altruism-thinks-youre-hitler
One lens to look at this is less through the āweāre all similarly qualifiedā like the AMA but more through the āweāre working with the same valuesā or āweāre working on similar problemsā like the Institute of Public Administration Australia. These have no qualification requirements. Still they offer similar things to what ea communities try to do https://āāqld.ipaa.org.au/āāfor-individuals/āā
These examples at the end are interesting and worth me mulling over. I do get the sense that Greenpeace or the NAACP would do many of the things you do
Thatās a good point. All AMA members have to meet certain criteria. I can see how āā8 week reading groupā pales in comparison to a medical degree.
Fixed thx
Iām interested in the authorsā take on this question: Change my mind: EA national organisations should be āprofessional associationsā not ācommunitiesā
[Question] Should EA ācomĀmuĀniĀtiesā be āproĀfesĀsional asĀsoĀciĀaĀtionsā?
Iāll look into it. The census data part seems okay. Collecting a representative sample would be harder (e.g., literacy rates are lower, so I donāt know how to estimate responses for those groups).
Thanks Peter. Fixed!
Thanks Seb. Iām not that surprisedāpublic surveys in the Existential Risk Persuasion tournament were pretty high (5% for AI). I donāt think most people are good at calibrating probabilities between 0.001% and 10% (myself included).
I donāt have strong hypotheses why people āmostly supportā something they also want treated with such care. My weak ones would be āpeople like technology but when asked about what the government should do, want them to keep them safe (remove biggest threats).ā For example, Australians support getting nuclear submarines but also support the ban on nuclear weapons. I donāt necessarily see this as a contradictionāākeep me safeā priorities would lead to both. I donāt know if our answers would have changed if we made the trade-offs more salient (e.g., hereās what youād lose if we took this policy action prioritising risks). Interested in suggestions for how we could do that better.
Itād be easy for us to run in other countries. Weāll put the data and code online soon. If someoneās keen to run the āget it in the hands of people who want to use itā piece, we could also do the ārun the survey and make a technical report oneā. Itās all in R so the marginal cost of another country is low. Weād need access to census data to do the statistical adjustment to estimate population agreement (but that should be easy to see if possible).
ļAusĀtraliĀans are conĀcerned about AI risks and exĀpect strong govĀernĀment action
As a social scientist, these lists are very helpful, thank you team. Itās useful to be able to point students and colleagues to open questions that are immediately decision-relevant.
Where did this project end up? Any public results?