Which longtermist hubs do we most need? (see also: Hacking Academia)
Suppose longtermism already has some presence in SF, Oxford, DC, London, Toronto, Melbourne, Boston, New York, and is already trying to boost its presence in the EU (especially Brussels, Paris, Berlin), UN (NYC, Geneva), and China (Beijing, …). Which other cities are important?
I think there’s a case for New Delhi, as the capital of India. It’s the third-largest country by GDP (PPP), soon-to-be the most populous country, high-growth, and a neighbour of China. Perhaps we’re neglecting it due to founder effects, because it has lower average wealth, because it’s universities aren’t thriving, and/or because it currently has a nationalist government.
I also see a case for Singapore—that it’s government and universities could be a place from which to work on de-escalating US-China tensions. It’s physically and culturally not far from China. As a city-state, it benefits a lot from peace and global trade. It’s by far the most-developed member of ASEAN, which is also large, mostly neutral, and benefits from peace. It’s generally very technocratic with high historical growth, and is also the HQ of APEC.
PPP-adjusted GDP seems less geopolitically relevant than nominal GDP, here’s a nominal GDP table based on the same 2017 PwC report (source), the results are broadly similar:
I’d be curious to discuss if there’s a case for Moscow. 80,000 Hours’s lists being a Russia or India specialist under “Other paths we’re excited about”. The case would probably revolve around Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal and efforts to build AI. If climate change were to become really bad (say 4 degrees+ warming), Russia (along with Canada and New Zealand) would become the new hub for immigration given it’s geography -- and this alone could make it one of the most influential countries in the world.
Which longtermist hubs do we most need? (see also: Hacking Academia)
Suppose longtermism already has some presence in SF, Oxford, DC, London, Toronto, Melbourne, Boston, New York, and is already trying to boost its presence in the EU (especially Brussels, Paris, Berlin), UN (NYC, Geneva), and China (Beijing, …). Which other cities are important?
I think there’s a case for New Delhi, as the capital of India. It’s the third-largest country by GDP (PPP), soon-to-be the most populous country, high-growth, and a neighbour of China. Perhaps we’re neglecting it due to founder effects, because it has lower average wealth, because it’s universities aren’t thriving, and/or because it currently has a nationalist government.
I also see a case for Singapore—that it’s government and universities could be a place from which to work on de-escalating US-China tensions. It’s physically and culturally not far from China. As a city-state, it benefits a lot from peace and global trade. It’s by far the most-developed member of ASEAN, which is also large, mostly neutral, and benefits from peace. It’s generally very technocratic with high historical growth, and is also the HQ of APEC.
I feel Indonesia / Jakarta is perhaps overlooked / neglected sometimes, despite it being expected to be the world’s 4th largest economy by 2050:
Jakarta—yep, it’s also ASEAN’s HQ. Worth noting, though, that Indonesia is moving its capital out of Jakarta.
Yes, good point! My idle speculations have also made me wonder about Indonesia at least once.
PPP-adjusted GDP seems less geopolitically relevant than nominal GDP, here’s a nominal GDP table based on the same 2017 PwC report (source), the results are broadly similar:
I’d be curious to discuss if there’s a case for Moscow. 80,000 Hours’s lists being a Russia or India specialist under “Other paths we’re excited about”. The case would probably revolve around Russia’s huge nuclear arsenal and efforts to build AI. If climate change were to become really bad (say 4 degrees+ warming), Russia (along with Canada and New Zealand) would become the new hub for immigration given it’s geography -- and this alone could make it one of the most influential countries in the world.