[Link] “The AI Timelines Scam”

On LessWrong, where there are some good com­ments: https://​​www.less­wrong.com/​​posts/​​KnQs55tjxWopCzKsk/​​the-ai-timelines-scam

The fear is that Others (Deep­Mind, China, who­ever) will de­velop AGI soon, so We have to de­velop AGI first in or­der to make sure it’s safe, be­cause Others won’t make sure it’s safe and We will. Also, We have to dis­cuss AGI strat­egy in pri­vate (and avoid pub­lic dis­cus­sion), so Others don’t get the wrong ideas. (Gen­er­ally, these claims have lit­tle em­piri­cal/​ra­tio­nal back­ing to them; they’re based on scary sto­ries, not his­tor­i­cally val­i­dated threat mod­els)
The claim that oth­ers will de­velop weapons and kill us with them by de­fault im­plies a moral claim to re­sources, and a moral claim to be jus­tified in mak­ing weapons in re­sponse.