This updates me to 90-10 fraud. Sophisticated parties generally don’t plead guilty to crimes they did not commit, and both Ellison and Wang are well-represented. I was probably overly optimistic with earlier predictions, perhaps in part due to positive personal interactions with Sam.
This updates me to 90-10 fraud. Sophisticated parties generally don’t plead guilty to crimes they did not commit, and both Ellison and Wang are well-represented. I was probably overly optimistic with earlier predictions, perhaps in part due to positive personal interactions with Sam.
Very sad for everyone involved.
How would you justify a 10% credence in there not having been massive fraud going on at FTX?
wayne has some … interesting … views
90-10 (fraud-mistake) when Ellison and Wang plead guilty
55-45 when the charges were made public
50-50 when SBF was arrested
25-75 after people disputed his comment below
20-80 after SBF’s dealbook interview
I think it’s the combination of a very strong prior for mistake + not following the situation especially closely
Props to wayne for providing regular and consistent updates to his beliefs, that’s actually pretty amazing