So do you think the long-term effects don’t dominate?
I’ve spent a lot of time discussing these questions and I still don’t have a strong opinion. I like the basic idea behind OpenPhil’s worldview diversification approach. They “allocate X% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “long-termist” perspective, and Y% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “near-termist” perspective”. X and Y are determined by how much credence they place on each worldview. If I was responsible for giving away that much money, I’d probably do the same. As an individual, I had to specialize and I found it easier to get a job on short-termist stuff so that’s what I’m working on.
I’ve spent a lot of time discussing these questions and I still don’t have a strong opinion. I like the basic idea behind OpenPhil’s worldview diversification approach. They “allocate X% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “long-termist” perspective, and Y% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “near-termist” perspective”. X and Y are determined by how much credence they place on each worldview. If I was responsible for giving away that much money, I’d probably do the same. As an individual, I had to specialize and I found it easier to get a job on short-termist stuff so that’s what I’m working on.
I also like that basic idea, though there’s also another part of me that feels deeply unsatisfied with it.
In any case, some other ideas that seem relevant are moral parliaments and moral uncertainty more generally.