Thanks for the answer Saulius, and I agree the hotel analogy is pretty different to the reality! So do you think the long-term effects don’t dominate? Or we can’t say what they are because they depend on other people’s unpredictable behaviour in a way that near-term things don’t?
And I think you’re also saying that, at any given time, we have a special opportunity to influence that time. Is that because we have more evidence about present effects or because there’s something special about direct rather than indirect effects? I’m confused because it seems like while we do have a special opportunity to influence the present because we’re here now, we also have a special opportunity to influence the future too because we’re here now. Eg. by doing anything that has positive compounding effects, or avoids lock-in of a bad state.
I just also want to say that in general, I really appreciate you engaging in this discussion and writing this post, especially in such a clear and well-structured way. I think that criticising others’ views takes courage but can be very valuable.
So do you think the long-term effects don’t dominate?
I’ve spent a lot of time discussing these questions and I still don’t have a strong opinion. I like the basic idea behind OpenPhil’s worldview diversification approach. They “allocate X% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “long-termist” perspective, and Y% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “near-termist” perspective”. X and Y are determined by how much credence they place on each worldview. If I was responsible for giving away that much money, I’d probably do the same. As an individual, I had to specialize and I found it easier to get a job on short-termist stuff so that’s what I’m working on.
I’m confused because it seems like while we do have a special opportunity to influence the present because we’re here now, we also have a special opportunity to influence the future too because we’re here now. Eg. by doing anything that has positive compounding effects, or avoids lock-in of a bad state.
Yes, I think this is just a reformulation of the old question, can we make more impact when focusing on short-term future or long-term future. And I think there is no easy answer to it.
Yes, all of these. But e.g. donation opportunities later could get worse to the point where this is outweighed. Also, with all of these, you empower future people (or future you) to do good rather than doing good directly but it’s unclear if they will use that power in a good way.
Thanks for the answer Saulius, and I agree the hotel analogy is pretty different to the reality! So do you think the long-term effects don’t dominate? Or we can’t say what they are because they depend on other people’s unpredictable behaviour in a way that near-term things don’t?
And I think you’re also saying that, at any given time, we have a special opportunity to influence that time. Is that because we have more evidence about present effects or because there’s something special about direct rather than indirect effects? I’m confused because it seems like while we do have a special opportunity to influence the present because we’re here now, we also have a special opportunity to influence the future too because we’re here now. Eg. by doing anything that has positive compounding effects, or avoids lock-in of a bad state.
I just also want to say that in general, I really appreciate you engaging in this discussion and writing this post, especially in such a clear and well-structured way. I think that criticising others’ views takes courage but can be very valuable.
I’ve spent a lot of time discussing these questions and I still don’t have a strong opinion. I like the basic idea behind OpenPhil’s worldview diversification approach. They “allocate X% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “long-termist” perspective, and Y% of capital to a bucket that aims to maximize impact from a “near-termist” perspective”. X and Y are determined by how much credence they place on each worldview. If I was responsible for giving away that much money, I’d probably do the same. As an individual, I had to specialize and I found it easier to get a job on short-termist stuff so that’s what I’m working on.
I also like that basic idea, though there’s also another part of me that feels deeply unsatisfied with it.
In any case, some other ideas that seem relevant are moral parliaments and moral uncertainty more generally.
Yes, I think this is just a reformulation of the old question, can we make more impact when focusing on short-term future or long-term future. And I think there is no easy answer to it.
Do you think any of these things have positive compounding effects or avoid lock-in:
-Investing to donate later,
-Narrow x-risk reduction,
-Building the EA community?
Yes, all of these. But e.g. donation opportunities later could get worse to the point where this is outweighed. Also, with all of these, you empower future people (or future you) to do good rather than doing good directly but it’s unclear if they will use that power in a good way.
Two sources which I think discuss at least sort-of relevant things quite well are:
The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk—Toby Ord
80k interview with Phil Trammell
(You may already be aware of these.)