I’m confused because it seems like while we do have a special opportunity to influence the present because we’re here now, we also have a special opportunity to influence the future too because we’re here now. Eg. by doing anything that has positive compounding effects, or avoids lock-in of a bad state.
Yes, I think this is just a reformulation of the old question, can we make more impact when focusing on short-term future or long-term future. And I think there is no easy answer to it.
Yes, all of these. But e.g. donation opportunities later could get worse to the point where this is outweighed. Also, with all of these, you empower future people (or future you) to do good rather than doing good directly but it’s unclear if they will use that power in a good way.
Yes, I think this is just a reformulation of the old question, can we make more impact when focusing on short-term future or long-term future. And I think there is no easy answer to it.
Do you think any of these things have positive compounding effects or avoid lock-in:
-Investing to donate later,
-Narrow x-risk reduction,
-Building the EA community?
Yes, all of these. But e.g. donation opportunities later could get worse to the point where this is outweighed. Also, with all of these, you empower future people (or future you) to do good rather than doing good directly but it’s unclear if they will use that power in a good way.
Two sources which I think discuss at least sort-of relevant things quite well are:
The timing of labour aimed at reducing existential risk—Toby Ord
80k interview with Phil Trammell
(You may already be aware of these.)