Thanks a lot for this! I’ve vaguely had the cached intuition that “political scientists think parliamentary systems are better” but never dug into it myself, very glad that you spelled out the research clearly + highlighted its importance, in a way that’s easy to understand.
You say:
So if one is writing a constitution, choosing parliamentalism is smart unless you have a massive prior for presidentialism.
It hardly needs saying that the longterm value of a better constitution is massive.
Are you aware of any constitutional designers that took inspiration from this paper? If not, do you think future constitutional designers are likely to?
Good question. The key is that Gerring’s paper ADJUSTED FOR DEMOCRACY. So it really means that “parliaments are better when they successfully become democracies”, not “parliaments are better in general”. This is a big stupid on Gerring’s part. I just noticed it and am mad. Anyway-
South Sudan becoming a democracy was very hard due to the proto-state institutions before independence. Ethno-nationalist patrimonial warlord autocracies dominated pre-independence South Sudan and had effectively won their independence in a long and bloody civil war. And there were two warlordships of similar power and ethnic bases (and polygamy). Describing the main factions can get long and complicated and I could easily make a mistake. I’ll just talk about three groups, the majority SPLM faction (mostly Dinka), the minority SPLM faction (mostly Nuer) and the International Community. I’m not an expert, so consider this a guess.
For the head of the majority faction (Salva Kiir) presidentialism is good because it concentrates power and patronage opportunities in his hands. He wants the presidency to have strong independence from the legislature. Remember the legislature is full of his lackeys. Being subservient to 300 lackeys makes corruption hard; capable people sneak in and bribes are more expensive (See Bueno De Mesquita, selectorate theory). This is the main reason, IMO.
For the head of the minority faction (Riek Machar), presidentialism also sounds nice because the upper house represented provincial governments. So the Nuer-dominated provinces have institutionalized power, maybe a veto. Note that war broke out a few months after Salva Kiir fired his ministers to consolidate power.
For the international community, the main thing is making sure that the government splits the money fairly. They know that state capacity will be tiny. In practice, they will be providing the services. But as long as the majority and minority faction are sharing the windfalls into their respective pyramid schemes fairly, a civil war might not happen. The massive corruption must seem fair to each warlord. Presidentialism should make this easier as well (checks and balances, multiple state actors with their own mandate).
If these actors were maximizing the quality of the health ministry in 20 years, Gerring would have been relevant. But none of them were.
Thanks again! I’m also still interested on whether you have thoughts on whether future constitutional designers are likely to take inspiration from this paper.
Thanks a lot for this! I’ve vaguely had the cached intuition that “political scientists think parliamentary systems are better” but never dug into it myself, very glad that you spelled out the research clearly + highlighted its importance, in a way that’s easy to understand.
You say:
Are you aware of any constitutional designers that took inspiration from this paper? If not, do you think future constitutional designers are likely to?
It appears that South Sudan has a presidential system.
Good question. The key is that Gerring’s paper ADJUSTED FOR DEMOCRACY. So it really means that “parliaments are better when they successfully become democracies”, not “parliaments are better in general”. This is a big stupid on Gerring’s part. I just noticed it and am mad. Anyway-
South Sudan becoming a democracy was very hard due to the proto-state institutions before independence. Ethno-nationalist patrimonial warlord autocracies dominated pre-independence South Sudan and had effectively won their independence in a long and bloody civil war. And there were two warlordships of similar power and ethnic bases (and polygamy). Describing the main factions can get long and complicated and I could easily make a mistake. I’ll just talk about three groups, the majority SPLM faction (mostly Dinka), the minority SPLM faction (mostly Nuer) and the International Community. I’m not an expert, so consider this a guess.
For the head of the majority faction (Salva Kiir) presidentialism is good because it concentrates power and patronage opportunities in his hands. He wants the presidency to have strong independence from the legislature. Remember the legislature is full of his lackeys. Being subservient to 300 lackeys makes corruption hard; capable people sneak in and bribes are more expensive (See Bueno De Mesquita, selectorate theory). This is the main reason, IMO.
For the head of the minority faction (Riek Machar), presidentialism also sounds nice because the upper house represented provincial governments. So the Nuer-dominated provinces have institutionalized power, maybe a veto. Note that war broke out a few months after Salva Kiir fired his ministers to consolidate power.
For the international community, the main thing is making sure that the government splits the money fairly. They know that state capacity will be tiny. In practice, they will be providing the services. But as long as the majority and minority faction are sharing the windfalls into their respective pyramid schemes fairly, a civil war might not happen. The massive corruption must seem fair to each warlord. Presidentialism should make this easier as well (checks and balances, multiple state actors with their own mandate).
If these actors were maximizing the quality of the health ministry in 20 years, Gerring would have been relevant. But none of them were.
Thanks again! I’m also still interested on whether you have thoughts on whether future constitutional designers are likely to take inspiration from this paper.
I don’t know yet. I am curious.
Thanks a lot for this comment. This was detailed, informative and I learned a lot about the situation in South Sudan.