This is very sad to think about, but in some contexts, it may also not be the case that “saving the baby leads to greater total lifespan”. In places with high childhood mortality, for example, the expected number of life-years gained from saving a relatively young adult might be higher than a baby. This is because some proportion of babies will die from various diseases early in life, whereas young adults who have “made it through” are more likely to die in old age.
I’m not sure how high infant mortality rates would have to be to make a difference though. I believe the major considerations are the philosophical ones Richard mentions.
There is also a great deal of thoughtful analysis on this question on GiveWell’s site. For example, a short intro here and a long post about AMF and population ethics here
In places with high childhood mortality, for example, the expected number of life-years gained from saving a relatively young adult might be higher than a baby. This is because some proportion of babies will die from various diseases early in life, whereas young adults who have “made it through” are more likely to die in old age.
I’m skeptical this consideration actually applies in practice. This argument would have applied in the past but not any more; according to OWID, Somalia has the world’s highest infant mortality at 14%. So even there a young adult (say 1⁄3 of the way through their life) is probably going to have fewer remaining expected life years than a baby.
Hm, yeah, I think you’re right. I remember seeing some curve where the value of saving a life initially rises as a person ages, then falls, but it must be determined by the other factors mentioned by others rather than the mortality thing.
A related consideration is that instead of being cared for by its mother, a surviving baby’s early life may be in the hands of bereaved relatives or an orphanage, which probably has adverse effect on childhood mortality, and even more so on expected lifetime utility
This is very sad to think about, but in some contexts, it may also not be the case that “saving the baby leads to greater total lifespan”. In places with high childhood mortality, for example, the expected number of life-years gained from saving a relatively young adult might be higher than a baby. This is because some proportion of babies will die from various diseases early in life, whereas young adults who have “made it through” are more likely to die in old age.
I’m not sure how high infant mortality rates would have to be to make a difference though. I believe the major considerations are the philosophical ones Richard mentions.
There is also a great deal of thoughtful analysis on this question on GiveWell’s site. For example, a short intro here and a long post about AMF and population ethics here
I’m skeptical this consideration actually applies in practice. This argument would have applied in the past but not any more; according to OWID, Somalia has the world’s highest infant mortality at 14%. So even there a young adult (say 1⁄3 of the way through their life) is probably going to have fewer remaining expected life years than a baby.
Hm, yeah, I think you’re right. I remember seeing some curve where the value of saving a life initially rises as a person ages, then falls, but it must be determined by the other factors mentioned by others rather than the mortality thing.
A related consideration is that instead of being cared for by its mother, a surviving baby’s early life may be in the hands of bereaved relatives or an orphanage, which probably has adverse effect on childhood mortality, and even more so on expected lifetime utility