Reading Group Launch: Introduction to Nuclear Issues, March-April 2023

[Isabel]

Idea & logistics developed by Samuel Belon & Isabel Johnson, the organizers, with much appreciated feedback and support from Andres & Monica, Haydn Belfield, Juan B. García Martínez, Carl Robichaud, Claudette Salinas Leyva, and others.

Information

What we’re doing

Inspired by conversations at EAGx Latin America, we thought it would be a good idea to start an introductory reading group on nuclear issues. If you read this and it sounds like something you’d be interested in, let us know by filling out this form by February 15th.

Little to no background knowledge is assumed. We are taking a broad view of the field: prevention of nuclear weapons usage, prevention of theft of nuclear materials by non-state actors, accidents in nuclear power plants, etc. Read through the syllabus to find out more.

Logistics

Participation per group is capped at 25 total participants to allow everyone space to contribute to the discussion.

I’ll send out a When2Meet shortly after February 15th in order to solidify meeting times by February 24th. I expect that the time will be especially convenient to participants between GMT+1 and GMT-3, with flexibility. If you are interested in hosting alternate sessions based in different time zones, e.g. GMT-9 or GMT+10, let me know!

Weekly meetings will last around 1.5 hours, with the exception of the first meeting. To introduce ourselves to each other before beginning discussion, we should expect at least 2 hours. Weekly reading load is estimated at below 2 hours, for a total weekly commitment of up to 3.5 hours. All readings will be provided.

Tentative Schedule

	Readings
Week One—Mar. 8 Introduction to nuclear security and nuclear weapons issues	“The Illogic of Nuclear Escalation” by Frank Kaplan, Asterisk Magazine “Air Force fires commanders over nuclear mix-up” by Andrew Gray, Reuters The Dead Hand by David E. Hoffman—pp. 10-27 (“Night watch for nuclear war” & Introduction) “Daniel Ellsberg on the creation of nuclear doomsday machines, the institutional insanity that maintains them, and a practical plan for dismantling them.” for 80,000 Hours (podcast) “Power of the Sun” by Charming Disaster (lyrics)
Week Two—Mar. 15 Nuclear weapons in the Cold War	The Dead Hand by David E. Hoffman—pp. 141-153 (ch. 6) and pp. 237-273 (ch. 11) Complementary reading: “Russia’s Doomsday Machine” by Bruce Blair “Key Moments in the Cuban Missile Crisis” by Patrick Kiger Complementary reading: ““Midnight is upon us”—the Cuban Missile Crisis as seen at the time, in one person’s words” by Harrison Brown “Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT)” The Gerald R. Ford Presidential Digital Library “Nuclear Hotlines” by Steven E. Miller “Hotline agreements” by the Arms Control Association “It’s a Mistake” by Men at Work (lyrics)
Week Three—Mar. 22 Consequences of nuclear war	Nuclear winter “Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions” by TTAPS Complementary reading: “Climate and Smoke” by TTAPS, in response to criticism of the model; or, “Nuclear Winter Theorists Pull Back” by Malcolm W. Browne, for the New York Times “Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production” by Xia et al. Or “Nuclear Famine 2022” by Matt Bivens, MD (less technical) Complementary reading: “Food System Adaptation and Maintaining Trade Greatly Mitigate Global Famine in Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios” (preprint) by Rivers et al. Human extinction The Precipice by Toby Ord—pp. 15-21 (Introduction), pp. 92-103 (Ch 4 introduction and “Nuclear weapons“), and pp. 188-197 (“Risks without precedent” and “International coordination”) “We will all go together when we go” by Tom Lehrer (lyrics)
Week Four—Mar. 29 Nuclear weapons near-accidents	“Sources of Human Instability in the Handling of Nuclear Weapons” by Herbert L. Abrams, M.D. “Close Calls with Nuclear Weapons” by the Union of Concerned Scientists The Dead Hand by David E. Hoffman—pp. 379-409 (ch. 17) and pp. 409-419 (ch. 18) Complementary reading: “Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk” by Maas, Matteucci, and Cooke “99 Red Balloons” by Nena (original German version) (lyrics)
Week Five—Apr. 5 MAD and the multipolarity problem	“Winter-safe deterrence: The Risk of Nuclear Winter and Its Challenge to Deterrence” by Seth Baum “Nuclear Weapons in the New Cyber Age” by Stoutland and Pitts-Kiefer “International agreements relating to nuclear weapons” by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament “Remarks by Joan Rohlfing at Effective Altruism Global: London 2021” (video or transcript) “Who’s Next?” by Tom Lehrer (lyrics)
Week Six—Apr. 12 Nuclear power accidents	“The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Disaster with Adam Higginbotham” on My Nuclear Life (podcast) “Backgrounder on the Three Mile Island Accident” by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission “The legacy of the Fukushima nuclear disaster” by Sophie Yeo Complementary reading: “Fukushima evacuation has killed more than earthquake and tsunami, survey says” “Why the world must protect nuclear reactors from military attacks. Now.” by George M. Moore “We Almost Lost Detroit” by Gil Scott Heron (lyrics)
Week Seven—Apr. 19 Non-state actor acquisition of nuclear weapons	“Use of nuclear and radiological weapons by terrorists?“ by Christoph Wirz and Emmanuel Egger for the International Review of the Red Cross “The lost nuclear bombs that no one can find” by Zaria Gorvett, BBC “The Potential for Radiological Terrorism by al-Qaeda and the Islamic State” by Michael Eisenstadt and Omar Mukhlis “Securing nuclear material & strong radiation sources” by Steinhausler and Bunn “A Nuclear 9/​11” by Nicholas D. Kristof Complementary reading: “A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism” by Matthew Bunn The Dead Hand by David E. Hoffman—pp. 446-465 (ch. 21) “Talking Atom” by Pete Seeger (lyrics)
Week Eight—Apr. 26 Conclusions	Flexible depending on interest

[Molly Hickman]

Very excited that you’re doing this. The reading and listening list looks terrific. Here are a few suggestions, which you can take or leave!

Some perspectives from sociology and related fields:

• Tacit Knowledge, Weapons Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons. Donald MacKenzie and Graham Spinardi, 1995. (This is essential reading IMO. Extremely well-written, and a perspective I hadn’t read anywhere else. I think about it a lot.)

• From ‘Inherently Safe’ to ‘Proliferation Resistant’: New Perspectives on Reactor Designs. Sonja D. Schmid, 2021.

• Reimagining Nuclear Engineering. Aditi Verma and Denia Djokic, 2021.

• From Accountants to Detectives: How Nuclear Safeguards Inspectors Make Knowledge at the IAEA. Anna Weichselbraun, 2020.

And a moving piece from the New Yorker (accounts from Hiroshima survivors), and Eisenhower’s speech he gave to the UN General Assembly:

• Hiroshima. John Hersey. New Yorker, 1946.

• Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” speech. 1953. (Recording.)

[Isabel]

Molly, this is awesome! After (/​possibly during) scheduling, if everyone’s on board, I’m looking forward to finalizing an updated syllabus with resources like these and popular input. I think firsthand accounts are going to be much more valuable than their poor representation on my original syllabus indicates. Thank you so much! :)