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Molly Hickman

Karma: 359

Working at Metaculus. Formerly a data analyst at the Forecasting Research Institute. Member of the Samotsvety forecasting team. Currently ranked 2nd in INFER (formerly CSET-Foretell) all-time leaderboard (7th in current season). Interests include prediction markets, technology policy, and traditional music.

Me­tac­u­lus Q4 AI Bench­mark­ing: Bots Are Clos­ing The Gap

Molly HickmanFeb 19, 2025, 10:46 PM
26 points
0 comments13 min readEA link

An­nounc­ing In­dexes: Big Ques­tions, Quantified

Molly HickmanJan 27, 2025, 5:42 PM
34 points
1 comment3 min readEA link

Col­lab­o­ra­tive In­tel­li­gence: Har­ness­ing Crowd Fore­cast­ing for Na­tional Security

Deger TuranDec 9, 2024, 10:12 PM
6 points
1 comment4 min readEA link
(fas.org)

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

Molly HickmanAug 20, 2024, 9:23 AM
25 points
3 comments6 min readEA link

Con­di­tional Trees: Gen­er­at­ing In­for­ma­tive Fore­cast­ing Ques­tions (FRI) -- AI Risk Case Study

Forecasting Research InstituteAug 12, 2024, 4:24 PM
44 points
2 comments8 min readEA link
(forecastingresearch.org)

Fore­cast­ing: the way I think about it

Molly HickmanMay 16, 2024, 7:01 PM
16 points
0 comments3 min readEA link

Re­sults from an Ad­ver­sar­ial Col­lab­o­ra­tion on AI Risk (FRI)

Forecasting Research InstituteMar 11, 2024, 3:54 PM
193 points
25 comments9 min readEA link
(forecastingresearch.org)

Poor power qual­ity is a bot­tle­neck to global health and development

Molly HickmanFeb 26, 2024, 1:44 PM
37 points
0 comments4 min readEA link