Working at the Forecasting Research Institute. Member of the Samotsvety forecasting team. Currently ranked 2nd in INFER (formerly CSET-Foretell) all-time leaderboard (7th in current season). Interests include prediction markets, technology policy, and traditional music.
Molly Hickman
Karma: 226
Results from an Adversarial Collaboration on AI Risk (FRI)
Poor power quality is a bottleneck to global health and development
Very excited that you’re doing this. The reading and listening list looks terrific. Here are a few suggestions, which you can take or leave!
Some perspectives from sociology and related fields:
Tacit Knowledge, Weapons Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons. Donald MacKenzie and Graham Spinardi, 1995. (This is essential reading IMO. Extremely well-written, and a perspective I hadn’t read anywhere else. I think about it a lot.)
From ‘Inherently Safe’ to ‘Proliferation Resistant’: New Perspectives on Reactor Designs. Sonja D. Schmid, 2021.
Reimagining Nuclear Engineering. Aditi Verma and Denia Djokic, 2021.
From Accountants to Detectives: How Nuclear Safeguards Inspectors Make Knowledge at the IAEA. Anna Weichselbraun, 2020.
And a moving piece from the New Yorker (accounts from Hiroshima survivors), and Eisenhower’s speech he gave to the UN General Assembly:
Hiroshima. John Hersey. New Yorker, 1946.
Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” speech. 1953. (Recording.)
Hi @Vasco Gril, thanks for the question. That is the standard deviation in percentage points. The distribution is decidedly un-Gaussian so the standard deviation is a little misleading.
We limited the y axis range on the box-and-dot plots like that one on page 272 -- they’re all truncated at the 95th percentile of tournament participants + a 5% cushion (footnote on page 18) -- so the max for Stage 1 for supers was actually 21.9%.
Here are a couple more summary stats for the superforecasters, for the 2030 question. The raw data are available here if you want to explore in more detail!