I agree with this assessment insofar as we might be far closer to climate tipping points than it at first seems. I am curious about how a society might use and recover from urgent geo-engineering.
It seems like any scenario where urgent geo-engineering is used would have drastic effects. Who do you imagine would make this decision? If it is the governments like the UN what efforts might be made to get them to seriously consider this proposal? If you Imagine that it would be individual actors this seems like it might do more harm than good insofar as it violates the principle of conformity.
On a separate note, it doesn’t seem like it would be easy to recover from the use of urgent geo-engineering in such a way that doesn’t put us past the tipping point again. It seems like the use of such technology would drastically reduce our ability to research after its use, as it seems like it would totally destroy the supply chain. I am curious if I am missing anything there.
As a result, I wonder if urgent geoengineering might not be a solution even if we are very close to tipping points.
If we create artificial nuclear winter—it could be created by one strong actor unilaterally. No coordination is needed.
Such nuclear winter may last few years and naturally resolve to normality. During this process two things could happen: either the tipping point conditions also stop, like methane leakage ends. Or we create more permanent solution to our problem like more stable form of geoengienering.
The artificial nuclear winter doesn’t need to be very strong (in −2-3 C range), so no major disruption of food production will happen.
I understand it could be done by one strong actor unilaterally, I simply wonder if I could reasonably support such an action being taken unilaterally. This paper is what sold me on this position https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf
I think you are overestimating what could be accomplished during this time period, I imagine that most people would become hostile to any movement which just intentionally triggered a nuclear winter.
Do you have a source on how disruptive nuclear winters would be to food production, I am skeptical.
On an unrelated note, I see that you sight “Nuclear war near misses and anthropic shadows” which is marked as being in preparation. I wrote an essay that I imagine is similar titled “Nuclear fine-tuning”. I am wondering if you have access to this document and if you could send it my way, as I would like to read it to see what gaps in my arguments it might fill in.
If there will obvious global runaway global warming, like +6C everywhere and growing month by month, people will demand “do something” about it and will accept attempts to use nuclear explosions to stop it.
I don’t have access now to the document “Nuclear war near misses and anthropic shadows”
Sanberg recently published its summary in twitter. he said that he uses the frequency of near-misses to estimate the power of anthropic shadow and found that near misses was not suppressed during the period of large nuclear stockpiles and it is evidence against anthropic shadow. I am not sure that it is true, as in early times the policy was more risky.
I agree with this assessment insofar as we might be far closer to climate tipping points than it at first seems. I am curious about how a society might use and recover from urgent geo-engineering.
It seems like any scenario where urgent geo-engineering is used would have drastic effects. Who do you imagine would make this decision? If it is the governments like the UN what efforts might be made to get them to seriously consider this proposal? If you Imagine that it would be individual actors this seems like it might do more harm than good insofar as it violates the principle of conformity.
On a separate note, it doesn’t seem like it would be easy to recover from the use of urgent geo-engineering in such a way that doesn’t put us past the tipping point again. It seems like the use of such technology would drastically reduce our ability to research after its use, as it seems like it would totally destroy the supply chain. I am curious if I am missing anything there.
As a result, I wonder if urgent geoengineering might not be a solution even if we are very close to tipping points.
If we create artificial nuclear winter—it could be created by one strong actor unilaterally. No coordination is needed.
Such nuclear winter may last few years and naturally resolve to normality. During this process two things could happen: either the tipping point conditions also stop, like methane leakage ends. Or we create more permanent solution to our problem like more stable form of geoengienering.
The artificial nuclear winter doesn’t need to be very strong (in −2-3 C range), so no major disruption of food production will happen.
I understand it could be done by one strong actor unilaterally, I simply wonder if I could reasonably support such an action being taken unilaterally. This paper is what sold me on this position https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf
I think you are overestimating what could be accomplished during this time period, I imagine that most people would become hostile to any movement which just intentionally triggered a nuclear winter.
Do you have a source on how disruptive nuclear winters would be to food production, I am skeptical.
On an unrelated note, I see that you sight “Nuclear war near misses and anthropic shadows” which is marked as being in preparation. I wrote an essay that I imagine is similar titled “Nuclear fine-tuning”. I am wondering if you have access to this document and if you could send it my way, as I would like to read it to see what gaps in my arguments it might fill in.
My essay can be found here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Gg2YsjGe3oahw2kxE/nuclear-fine-tuning-how-many-worlds-have-been-destroyed
If there will obvious global runaway global warming, like +6C everywhere and growing month by month, people will demand “do something” about it and will accept attempts to use nuclear explosions to stop it.
I don’t have access now to the document “Nuclear war near misses and anthropic shadows”
Ah, that’s too bad, do you have the email of anyone who would?
Sanberg recently published its summary in twitter. he said that he uses the frequency of near-misses to estimate the power of anthropic shadow and found that near misses was not suppressed during the period of large nuclear stockpiles and it is evidence against anthropic shadow. I am not sure that it is true, as in early times the policy was more risky.