I like that you suggest doing some BOTECs. Open Philanthropy has spent 191 M$ on their focus area of “Biosecurity & Pandemic Preparedness”, but I am not aware of them publishing any cost-effectiveness analysis, and they just have 2 reports on their website (one from 2014, and another from 2018).
This is a really interesting one and I would love to see something on it too . I think framing it just around cost could be a mistake. if the tech was there to eliminate even one disease then I think we would be doing almost all we can almost regardless of cost—almost the case with polio right now.
What would it take to eradicate all infectious diseases by 2050?
I want to see high-level abstract research what it would take to eliminate all infectious disease by a certain date, e.g. 2050 or 2080
I really liked “10 technologies that won’t exist in 5 years” by Jacob Trefethen, and this post would have a similar vibe.
do some very rough BOTECs
how much did it cost to eliminate smallpox?
how much did it cost to almost eliminate polio?
what other diseases have been eradicated?
come up with average cost of eliminating one disease
of course last mile is the hardest and maybe most costly
what other attempts at eradicating diseases failed and how much did that cost?
malaria
Hi Max,
I like that you suggest doing some BOTECs. Open Philanthropy has spent 191 M$ on their focus area of “Biosecurity & Pandemic Preparedness”, but I am not aware of them publishing any cost-effectiveness analysis, and they just have 2 reports on their website (one from 2014, and another from 2018).
This is a really interesting one and I would love to see something on it too . I think framing it just around cost could be a mistake. if the tech was there to eliminate even one disease then I think we would be doing almost all we can almost regardless of cost—almost the case with polio right now.