Hi. I emailed Tony Allan, the social scientist quoted in the nature op-ed I linked above, about this question:
I have your enquiry about the link between water scarcity and the present armed conflict in Syria.
My position is the same as it was when I concluded, as did others, in the 1980s that armed conflict could take place between farmers and between villages that shared a water resources for irrigation. But nations have not gone to war over water. The latter outcome was and remains a consequence of the willingness of a few economies—well endowed with water resources—USA, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Australia—to export food at prices which have not reflected all the production costs, nor any of the costs of water, nor the costs of damaging their water ecosystems, biodiversity and the atmosphere. Importing food is a no brainer for water scarce economies. They benefit from underpriced food and the exporters give them their environment for nothing. It is an amazing example of willing self harm—in an extreme form in the case of the United States..
The current Syrian crisis is a consequence of not being able to organise the reliable import and distribution of underpriced food.
I attach a paper which introduces a number of ideas about the global food system and its problems. It is an accessible version of the last chapter by myself in the recently published book entitled Water, food and society. See attachment.
Please get back if you have further questions.
With very best regards
Here’s the beginning of the abstract of the linked chapter:
Abstract: Affordable food is a political imperative. There is nothing more expensive: food is grown in a failed market where farmers are price takers, not price setters; they subsidise the rest of us by delivering under-priced food but cannot, at the same time, take good care of the land. The real cost of food is paid by stealing from our children’s future: by running down soil health, biodiversity and water resources; and in emissions of greenhouse gases. And in small part by farm subsidies.
The ecological problems with soil he mentions in his chapter seem to be somewhat related to climate change but climate change doesn’t seem to be central to them.
(I skimmed but did not read the paper, if someone’s interested in investigating further, ping me and I can forward the email to you).
Have you read this paper suggesting that there is no good evidence of a connection between climate change and the Syrian war? I found it quite persuasive.
Just flagging that I posted this comment (the parent) from the wrong account (EA Hotel), should’ve been from this one! [mods, I don’t suppose there is any way of correcting this?]
Re: “water wars”. That article is from 2009. Since then there has been Syria.
Hi. I emailed Tony Allan, the social scientist quoted in the nature op-ed I linked above, about this question:
Here’s the beginning of the abstract of the linked chapter:
The ecological problems with soil he mentions in his chapter seem to be somewhat related to climate change but climate change doesn’t seem to be central to them.
(I skimmed but did not read the paper, if someone’s interested in investigating further, ping me and I can forward the email to you).
Have you read this paper suggesting that there is no good evidence of a connection between climate change and the Syrian war? I found it quite persuasive.
Just flagging that I posted this comment (the parent) from the wrong account (EA Hotel), should’ve been from this one! [mods, I don’t suppose there is any way of correcting this?]