I also think it’s prudent to assume that even hawkish central bankers are broadly impartial and welfarist (but maybe just place more emphasis on longterm growth).
But I think maybe OpenPhil’s general theory of change and reasoning is still plausibly correct for 2008-2020, and people systematically undervalued how bad unemployment was for wellbeing and were perhaps too worried about inflation for political reasons.
I also think it’s prudent to assume that even hawkish central bankers are broadly impartial and welfarist (but maybe just place more emphasis on longterm growth).
But I think maybe OpenPhil’s general theory of change and reasoning is still plausibly correct for 2008-2020, and people systematically undervalued how bad unemployment was for wellbeing and were perhaps too worried about inflation for political reasons.