Suppose there are N people and a baseline existential risk r. There’s an intervention that reduces risk by δ×100% (ie., not percentage points).
Outcome with no intervention: rN people die. Outcome with intervention: (1−δ)rN people die.
Difference between outcomes: δrN. So we should be willing to pay up to δr⋅u(N) for the intervention, where u(N) is the dollar value of N lives.
[Extension: account for time periods, with discounting for exogenous risks.]
I think this approach makes more sense than starting by assigning $X to 0.01% risk reductions, and then looking at the cost of available interventions.
What does that even mean in this context? cost =/= value, and empirically longtermist EA has nowhere near the amounts of $s as would be implied by this model.
@Linch, I’m curious if you’ve taken an intermediate microeconomics course. The idea of maximizing utility subject to a budget constraint (ie. constrained maximization) is the core idea, and is literally what EAs are doing. I’ve been thinking for a while now about writing up the basic idea of constrained maximization, and showing how it applies to EAs. Do you think that would be worthwhile?
Suppose there are N people and a baseline existential risk r. There’s an intervention that reduces risk by δ×100% (ie., not percentage points).
Outcome with no intervention: rN people die.
Outcome with intervention: (1−δ)rN people die.
Difference between outcomes: δrN. So we should be willing to pay up to δr⋅u(N) for the intervention, where u(N) is the dollar value of N lives.
[Extension: account for time periods, with discounting for exogenous risks.]
I think this approach makes more sense than starting by assigning $X to 0.01% risk reductions, and then looking at the cost of available interventions.
What does that even mean in this context? cost =/= value, and empirically longtermist EA has nowhere near the amounts of $s as would be implied by this model.
@Linch, I’m curious if you’ve taken an intermediate microeconomics course. The idea of maximizing utility subject to a budget constraint (ie. constrained maximization) is the core idea, and is literally what EAs are doing. I’ve been thinking for a while now about writing up the basic idea of constrained maximization, and showing how it applies to EAs. Do you think that would be worthwhile?
I’d love to read such a post.
I did in sophomore year of college (Varian’s book I think?), but it was ~10 years ago so I don’t remember much. 😅😅😅. A primer may be helpful, sure.
(That said, I think it would be more worthwhile if you used your model to produce an answer to my question, and then illustrate some implications).
Given an intervention of value v, you should be willing to pay for it if the cost c satisfies c≤v (with indifference at equality).
If your budget constraint is binding, then you allocate it across causes so as to maximize utility.