Powerful people are always going to have more influence (which will sometimes be good and sometimes be bad). The difference with futarchy is it incentivizes each individual to set aside their class interests because their individdual interests are in the opposite direction. The most profitable cases on prediction markets are ones where there is a large amount of irrational buyers on the other side.
But is it in your individual interest? Is making enemies of your friends and family while losing a guaranteed lifelong stream of income for you and your children really worth it for the possibility of having a one time large payout? What about with different probabilities? What if you think the policy has a 51% chance of helping the poor and a 49% chance of doing nothing. This would be a fantastic policy to try but even without coordination mechanisms like dominance assurance contracts, I doubt a self interested rich person would sacrifice their social network and lifelong stream of income for a 51% of having a one time large payout (actually less than 51% since it probably won’t be implemented due to the conditional prediction market).
I assume you could trade privately, in the same way that the stock market and many prediction markets currently work. So there wouldn’t need to be any negative social consequences. Perhaps regulators and the exchange could see your identity for compliance purposes.
Allowing anonymous predictions causes a whole bunch of other problems. But even we could somehow get rid of coordination mechanisms like: dominance assurance contracts, the fear of losing your social network, or psychological loyalty towards your ingroup, is it really in your own interest to lose the source of income for you and your children for a <51% chance of a one time payout, or will the outcomes of conditional prediction markets be biased towards the interests of rich people?
Powerful people are always going to have more influence (which will sometimes be good and sometimes be bad). The difference with futarchy is it incentivizes each individual to set aside their class interests because their individdual interests are in the opposite direction. The most profitable cases on prediction markets are ones where there is a large amount of irrational buyers on the other side.
But is it in your individual interest? Is making enemies of your friends and family while losing a guaranteed lifelong stream of income for you and your children really worth it for the possibility of having a one time large payout?
What about with different probabilities? What if you think the policy has a 51% chance of helping the poor and a 49% chance of doing nothing. This would be a fantastic policy to try but even without coordination mechanisms like dominance assurance contracts, I doubt a self interested rich person would sacrifice their social network and lifelong stream of income for a 51% of having a one time large payout (actually less than 51% since it probably won’t be implemented due to the conditional prediction market).
I assume you could trade privately, in the same way that the stock market and many prediction markets currently work. So there wouldn’t need to be any negative social consequences. Perhaps regulators and the exchange could see your identity for compliance purposes.
Allowing anonymous predictions causes a whole bunch of other problems. But even we could somehow get rid of coordination mechanisms like: dominance assurance contracts, the fear of losing your social network, or psychological loyalty towards your ingroup, is it really in your own interest to lose the source of income for you and your children for a <51% chance of a one time payout, or will the outcomes of conditional prediction markets be biased towards the interests of rich people?