Thanks so much for posting this Gideon. I like your way of framing this into these two loose clusters, and especially your claim that it is good to have both. I completely agree. While my work is indeed more within the simple cluster, I feel that a fight over which approach is right would be misguided.
All phenomena can be modelled at lesser or greater degrees of precision, with different advantages and disadvantages of each. Often there are some sweet spots where there is an especially good tradeoff between accuracy and ability to actually use the model. We should try to find those and use them all to illuminate the issue.
There is a lot to be said for simple and for complex approaches. In general, my way forward with all kinds of topics is to start as simple as possible and only add complexity when it is clearly needed to address a glaring fault. We all know the truth is as complex as the universe, so the question is not whether the more complex model is more accurate, but whether it adds sufficient accuracy to justify the problems it introduces, such as reduced usability, reduced clarity, and overfitting. Sometimes it clearly is. Other times I don’t see that it is and am happy to wait for those who favour the complex model to point to important results it produces.
One virtue of a simple model that I think is often overlooked is its ability to produce crisp insights that, once found, can be clearly explained and communicated to others. This makes knowledge sharing easier and makes it easier to build up a field’s understanding from these crisp insights. I think the kind of understanding you gain from more complex models is often more a form of improving your intuitions and is harder to communicate, and doesn’t typically come with a simple explanation that the other person can check to see if you are right without spending a similar amount of time with the model.
I really appreciate the explorative, curious, open and constructive approach Toby!
On ‘what are some important results that a complex model produces’, one nice example is a focus on vulnerability. That is, focus on improving general resilience, as well as preventing and mitigating particular hazards. This has apparently become best practice in many companies—e.g. rather than just listing hazards, focus also on having adequate capital reserves and some slack/redundancy in one’s supply chains.
Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson have done some great complex-model-ish work looking at the resilience of island nations to a range of scenarios. One thing that turned up is that Aotearoa New Zealand has lots of food production, but transport of that food is reliant on road transport, and the country closed its only oil refinery. Having an oil refinery might increase its resilience/decrease its vulnerability.
I don’t think that point would have necessarily come up in a ‘simple-model’ approach, but its concrete, tractable, important and plausibly a good thing to suggest the govt act on.
Of course, you touch on vulnerabilities in the Precipice. Nevertheless, its fun to wonder what a sequel would look like with each chapter framed around a critical system/vulnerability (food, health, communications) rather than each around a particular hazard.
Thanks so much for posting this Gideon. I like your way of framing this into these two loose clusters, and especially your claim that it is good to have both. I completely agree. While my work is indeed more within the simple cluster, I feel that a fight over which approach is right would be misguided.
All phenomena can be modelled at lesser or greater degrees of precision, with different advantages and disadvantages of each. Often there are some sweet spots where there is an especially good tradeoff between accuracy and ability to actually use the model. We should try to find those and use them all to illuminate the issue.
There is a lot to be said for simple and for complex approaches. In general, my way forward with all kinds of topics is to start as simple as possible and only add complexity when it is clearly needed to address a glaring fault. We all know the truth is as complex as the universe, so the question is not whether the more complex model is more accurate, but whether it adds sufficient accuracy to justify the problems it introduces, such as reduced usability, reduced clarity, and overfitting. Sometimes it clearly is. Other times I don’t see that it is and am happy to wait for those who favour the complex model to point to important results it produces.
One virtue of a simple model that I think is often overlooked is its ability to produce crisp insights that, once found, can be clearly explained and communicated to others. This makes knowledge sharing easier and makes it easier to build up a field’s understanding from these crisp insights. I think the kind of understanding you gain from more complex models is often more a form of improving your intuitions and is harder to communicate, and doesn’t typically come with a simple explanation that the other person can check to see if you are right without spending a similar amount of time with the model.
I really appreciate the explorative, curious, open and constructive approach Toby!
On ‘what are some important results that a complex model produces’, one nice example is a focus on vulnerability. That is, focus on improving general resilience, as well as preventing and mitigating particular hazards. This has apparently become best practice in many companies—e.g. rather than just listing hazards, focus also on having adequate capital reserves and some slack/redundancy in one’s supply chains.
Matt Boyd and Nick Wilson have done some great complex-model-ish work looking at the resilience of island nations to a range of scenarios. One thing that turned up is that Aotearoa New Zealand has lots of food production, but transport of that food is reliant on road transport, and the country closed its only oil refinery. Having an oil refinery might increase its resilience/decrease its vulnerability.
I don’t think that point would have necessarily come up in a ‘simple-model’ approach, but its concrete, tractable, important and plausibly a good thing to suggest the govt act on.
Of course, you touch on vulnerabilities in the Precipice. Nevertheless, its fun to wonder what a sequel would look like with each chapter framed around a critical system/vulnerability (food, health, communications) rather than each around a particular hazard.