For professor negotiations, this says about 2% of the time you try to bargain, the offer is rescinded. But because university positions are so competitive, I would not be surprised if the general rescinding rate were significantly less than this.
Last I looked at the data for job negotiations, the rescission rate is actually much higher for jobs, around 10%.
Wow—that is a lot of risk. One would need at least an 11% increase in compensation for negotiation to make sense, even if one were risk neutral. And most people are risk averse, meaning they would need an even bigger payoff, which might not be realistic.
Edit: this is not correct—thanks for people pointing that out!
It matters less if you time your offers so you have multiple at the same time.
I don’t think that 11% figure is correct. It depends on how long you would stay at the company if you would get the job, and on the time you would be unemployed for if the offer were rescinded.
Wait wouldn’t competition make rescission more likely?
Right—I’m saying the 2% rescission rate for professor positions is high because of competition (employer has more power), so the rescission rate outside of academia would likely be lower (employee has more power, at least now).