But we might oppose efforts like the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which disproportionately save violent-psychology worlds.
Does it? It seems a lot of risk comes from accidental catastrophes rather than intentional ones. Accidental catastrophes to me don’t seem like proof of the future being violent.
Also, I think that we should treat our efforts to reduce the risk of intentional catastrophe or inflicted suffering as evidence. Why wouldn’t the fact that we choose to reduce the impact of malicious actors be proof that malicious actors’ impact will be curtailed by other actors in the future?
As long as any of NTI’s effort is directed against intentional catastrophes, they’re still saving violent-psychology worlds disproportionately, so in principle this could swing the balance. That said, good point: much of their work should reduce the risk of accidental catastrophes as well, so maybe there’s not actually much difference between NTI and asteroid deflection.
(I won’t take a stand here about what counts as evidence for what, for fear that this will turn into a big decision theory debate :) )
Does it? It seems a lot of risk comes from accidental catastrophes rather than intentional ones. Accidental catastrophes to me don’t seem like proof of the future being violent.
Also, I think that we should treat our efforts to reduce the risk of intentional catastrophe or inflicted suffering as evidence. Why wouldn’t the fact that we choose to reduce the impact of malicious actors be proof that malicious actors’ impact will be curtailed by other actors in the future?
As long as any of NTI’s effort is directed against intentional catastrophes, they’re still saving violent-psychology worlds disproportionately, so in principle this could swing the balance. That said, good point: much of their work should reduce the risk of accidental catastrophes as well, so maybe there’s not actually much difference between NTI and asteroid deflection.
(I won’t take a stand here about what counts as evidence for what, for fear that this will turn into a big decision theory debate :) )