I only see an empty command line, and when I type in, e.g. “Will Putin still be President of Russia at the end of 2023? 1y”, it instantly creates a private binary question that closes at the end of today and puts the resolve date to one year from today. The question title is filled out as a random combination of the words from the question text. It just fills in a dot for background info, resolution criteria, and fine print.
The format could be “[question text]? [resolve date]” where the question mark serves as the indicator for the end of the question text, and the resolve date part can interpret things like “1w”, “1y”, “eoy”, “5d”
In a perfect world, this would also integrate with Alfred on my mac so that it becomes extremely easy and quick to create a new private question
This feature would allow me to quickly create a binary private forecast when I am thinking of it and improve my calibration over time.
Also, I have a question about the calibration plot that Metaculus creates on my profile: Does it only take into account the last forecast I made on a question or somehow integrates all forecasts I made on one question over time and puts that into the calibration plot?
Thanks for this update. I like Metaculus and have started forecasting more in 2022.
Something I would enjoy seeing is the ability to have a very quick UI for creating private questions, similar to what Nathan proposes here: https://www.super-linear.org/prize?recordId=recYHpvvGFmiFq9tS
Here is what I imagine this could look like:
I pull up https://quick.metaculus.com
I only see an empty command line, and when I type in, e.g. “Will Putin still be President of Russia at the end of 2023? 1y”, it instantly creates a private binary question that closes at the end of today and puts the resolve date to one year from today. The question title is filled out as a random combination of the words from the question text. It just fills in a dot for background info, resolution criteria, and fine print.
The format could be “[question text]? [resolve date]” where the question mark serves as the indicator for the end of the question text, and the resolve date part can interpret things like “1w”, “1y”, “eoy”, “5d”
In a perfect world, this would also integrate with Alfred on my mac so that it becomes extremely easy and quick to create a new private question
This feature would allow me to quickly create a binary private forecast when I am thinking of it and improve my calibration over time.
Also, I have a question about the calibration plot that Metaculus creates on my profile: Does it only take into account the last forecast I made on a question or somehow integrates all forecasts I made on one question over time and puts that into the calibration plot?
It’s a great idea, and I like how you’ve fleshed it out. I’ll pass this along to our Product team.
For your calibration plot, you can actually use the ‘evaluated at’ dropdown and watch your plot adjust on the fly.