However, polls suggest that the percentage of the population that’s vegetarian has stayed basically flat since 1999
I think there’s three nitpicks I’d make here:
1.) The sample size of this poll you cite (margin of error of +/- 4%) is typically not large enough to detect subtle shifts in the percentage of vegetarians, especially since the initial population is so small, such that the veg rate could approximately double and still have a ~50% chance of not being detected by the poll.
2.) As you may know, asking people whether they are vegetarian/vegan in a poll is a fairly fraught concept, since we know that people frequently say “Yes” to this question while also saying “Yes” to eating meat.
3.) I think looking at a better collection of polls actually does find a positive upward trend, going from ~2.5% in 1999 to ~6% in 2022. These polls also solve (2) by better question wording.
None of this should be taken to undermine your point though—I do think veg retention is a large issue and more marginal work on it would be helpful.
I think there’s three nitpicks I’d make here:
1.) The sample size of this poll you cite (margin of error of +/- 4%) is typically not large enough to detect subtle shifts in the percentage of vegetarians, especially since the initial population is so small, such that the veg rate could approximately double and still have a ~50% chance of not being detected by the poll.
2.) As you may know, asking people whether they are vegetarian/vegan in a poll is a fairly fraught concept, since we know that people frequently say “Yes” to this question while also saying “Yes” to eating meat.
3.) I think looking at a better collection of polls actually does find a positive upward trend, going from ~2.5% in 1999 to ~6% in 2022. These polls also solve (2) by better question wording.
None of this should be taken to undermine your point though—I do think veg retention is a large issue and more marginal work on it would be helpful.
I think point 3 deserves its own post and to be shared more widely, since it would be a big update for a lot of people.
Will do!
This is cool. What makes these polls “a better collection” in your view?
More time periods
Better question wording
2.8x bigger sample size