Thank you, this gets at something that had been bothering me about the megaprojects discourse, and your diagram articulates it very well. I also agree that efficiency is not the most important consideration once you get to a certain level of ambition.
With that said, it seems important to point out that planning/due diligence, piloting, and early-stage growth capital for potentially effective megaprojects could often still meet or exceed the efficiency bar from an expected-value standpoint, albeit with a much higher probability of failure than e.g. GiveWell’s recommended charities.
[Edit: added “due diligence” to “planning” since not all megaprojects can be piloted easily.]
Though I also think your comment could be read as implying that you think megaprojects won’t themselves be cost-effective / labour-effective / in other senses efficient, relative to some bar like 80k or FHI or GiveWell’s recommended charities or ACE’s recommended charities. (Were you indeed thinking that?)
I think I disagree with that. That is, I’d guess that at least a few megaprojects that would be worth doing if we had the right founders will also clear the relevant efficiency bar. (I also think that at least a few won’t clear the relevant efficiency bar. And, of course, most megaprojects that aren’t worth doing will also not clear the relevant efficiency bar.)
I haven’t attempted any relevant Fermi estimates or even really properly qualitatively thought about this before. My tentative disagreement is just based on the following fuzzy thoughts:
The set “megaprojects that would be worth doing if we had the right founders” is probably fairly large, so it wouldn’t be that hard for at least a few to clear those bars?
It seems plausible there are multiple ambitious ideas that could make like >1000x as large a dent in the world’s problems as other things we’re excited about do, while absorbing >1000x as many resources, such that overall they’re similarly efficient?
Megaprojects can benefit from economies of scale
(But now that I’ve started to draft this reply, I realise that this might be an important question, that its answer isn’t immediately obvious, and that I’ve hardly thought about it at all and I don’t feel confident about my fuzzy thoughts on it. Also, in any case, this wouldn’t mean I overall disagree with your comment and wouldn’t change my views on what I said in the post itself.)
Thank you, this gets at something that had been bothering me about the megaprojects discourse, and your diagram articulates it very well. I also agree that efficiency is not the most important consideration once you get to a certain level of ambition.
With that said, it seems important to point out that planning/due diligence, piloting, and early-stage growth capital for potentially effective megaprojects could often still meet or exceed the efficiency bar from an expected-value standpoint, albeit with a much higher probability of failure than e.g. GiveWell’s recommended charities.
[Edit: added “due diligence” to “planning” since not all megaprojects can be piloted easily.]
Yeah, I agree with that.
Though I also think your comment could be read as implying that you think megaprojects won’t themselves be cost-effective / labour-effective / in other senses efficient, relative to some bar like 80k or FHI or GiveWell’s recommended charities or ACE’s recommended charities. (Were you indeed thinking that?)
I think I disagree with that. That is, I’d guess that at least a few megaprojects that would be worth doing if we had the right founders will also clear the relevant efficiency bar. (I also think that at least a few won’t clear the relevant efficiency bar. And, of course, most megaprojects that aren’t worth doing will also not clear the relevant efficiency bar.)
I haven’t attempted any relevant Fermi estimates or even really properly qualitatively thought about this before. My tentative disagreement is just based on the following fuzzy thoughts:
The set “megaprojects that would be worth doing if we had the right founders” is probably fairly large, so it wouldn’t be that hard for at least a few to clear those bars?
It seems plausible there are multiple ambitious ideas that could make like >1000x as large a dent in the world’s problems as other things we’re excited about do, while absorbing >1000x as many resources, such that overall they’re similarly efficient?
Megaprojects can benefit from economies of scale
(But now that I’ve started to draft this reply, I realise that this might be an important question, that its answer isn’t immediately obvious, and that I’ve hardly thought about it at all and I don’t feel confident about my fuzzy thoughts on it. Also, in any case, this wouldn’t mean I overall disagree with your comment and wouldn’t change my views on what I said in the post itself.)