I use both Manifold and Metaculus every day and it’s not really clear to me which I spend time on more. The answer is “a lot” to both.
For joy of use, I think Manifold has worked hard to make the forecasting process very seamless and I like that. I also like the gamification of the mana profit system. That being said, I think the questions on Metaculus tend to be more interesting. I personally like having rigorous resolution criteria and I personally prefer being able to give my true probabilities rather than bet up or down. So Metaculus might suit my personality better.
Surprisingly I don’t really have a clear read which platform is more accurate. So I think the value of information is optimized by using both platforms. I’m keen to see this researched more.
By answering this question I should disclose that Metaculus pays me money for being a forecaster. I suppose Manifold also indirectly pays me money because RP is part of their Manifold for Charity program. So my feelings towards them are not exactly unbiased.
I use both Manifold and Metaculus every day and it’s not really clear to me which I spend time on more. The answer is “a lot” to both.
For joy of use, I think Manifold has worked hard to make the forecasting process very seamless and I like that. I also like the gamification of the mana profit system. That being said, I think the questions on Metaculus tend to be more interesting. I personally like having rigorous resolution criteria and I personally prefer being able to give my true probabilities rather than bet up or down. So Metaculus might suit my personality better.
Surprisingly I don’t really have a clear read which platform is more accurate. So I think the value of information is optimized by using both platforms. I’m keen to see this researched more.
By answering this question I should disclose that Metaculus pays me money for being a forecaster. I suppose Manifold also indirectly pays me money because RP is part of their Manifold for Charity program. So my feelings towards them are not exactly unbiased.