I think this has removed the pathology. There’s still more variation in this number, but that comes from more uncertainty about amount of senior staff time needed. If the decision-relevant question under consideration is “how many of these could we do sequentially?” then this uncertainty is appropriate to weight like this.
Let me know if you think the model is better and I can update the post.
re (1), that is true because Guesstimate uses a Monte Carlo method with 5K samples I think.
re (2), I don’t know how to read the sensitivity outputs well, but nothing looks weird to me. Could you explain?
I think this has removed the pathology. There’s still more variation in this number, but that comes from more uncertainty about amount of senior staff time needed. If the decision-relevant question under consideration is “how many of these could we do sequentially?” then this uncertainty is appropriate to weight like this.
Thanks. I updated the post accordingly.