If one includes sims, grabby civs would possibly but not necessarily have more observers (like us) than quiet expansionist civs. For example, the expected number of sims may be roughly the same, or even larger, in quiet expansionist scenarios that involve a deadline/shift (cf. sec. 4).[1] There’s also the possibility that computation could be more efficient in quiet regimes (some have argued along these lines, though I’m by no means saying it’s correct; I’m not sure if we currently understand physics well enough to make confident pronouncements either way).
But yes, the argument outlined in Section 3 was limited to “base reality” scenarios. Conditional on you not being in a simulation (e.g. if exact sims of your conscious experience are not possible), the anthropic argument in Section 3 suggests that you’re in a quiet expansionist scenario, or in a quiet expansionist region within a mixed scenario. Conditional on you being in a simulation, it seems unclear.
Why might it be even larger? Intuitively, one might think that grabby civs could start simulating earlier, since they don’t have to wait and be quiet. But in the quiet expansionist model, expansionist civ origin dates would, in expectation, be significantly earlier, since we could be past the point where they’ve fully colonized. That is, in a grabby model, we’d now be pre-deadline, whereas we may be “post-deadline” in the quiet expansionist model — indeed, we most likely would be if the hard-steps model is correct. So the expansionist civs would be considerably older (they could even be much older) in the quiet expansionist vs. the grabby model. Thus, if we only look at the past, it’s conceivable that quiet civs would be able to run more sims, even if they have considerably fewer sims per colonized volume (as they might make up for it by having far more time and volume).
At any rate, given the apparent size of the cosmic future compared to the past, what matters most for the expected number of sims is hardly earliness (e.g. full cosmic expansion at 9 vs. 15 billion years), but arguably more something like future willingness and capacity to devote resources toward simulations. And when it comes to the willingness aspect, I can see some reasons to think that civs that started out as quiet expansionists up till our point (not necessarily staying that way) might have more incentive to simulate vs. grabby ones. For example, the strategic situation and motives in quiet expansionist scenarios would plausibly be more concerned with potential adversaries from elsewhere, and civs in such scenarios may thus be significantly more inclined to simulate the developmental trajectories of potential adversaries from elsewhere. Of course, this is speculative, but it serves to show that the picture with sims is complicated and the upshots are non-obvious.
There’s also the possibility that computation could be more efficient in quiet regimes
The aestivation hypothesis was refuted by gwern as soon as it was posted and then again by charles bennet and robin hanson. Afaik, the argument was simple: being able to do stuff later doesn’t create a disincentive from doing visible stuff now. Cold computing isn’t relevant to the firmi hypothesis.
But yes, the argument outlined in Section 3 was limited to “base reality” scenarios.
Huh, so I guess this could be one of the very rare situations where I think it’s important to acknowledge the simulation argument, because assuming it’s false could force you to reach implausible conclusions about techno-eschatology. Though I can’t see a practical need to be right about techno-eschatology, that kind of thing is an intrinsic preference.
For example, the strategic situation and motives in quiet expansionist scenarios would plausibly be more concerned with potential adversaries from elsewhere, and civs in such scenarios may thus be significantly more inclined to simulate the developmental trajectories of potential adversaries from elsewhere.
I haven’t been able to think of a lot of reasons a civ would simulate nature beyond intrinsic curiosity. That’s a good one (another one I periodically consider and then cringe from has to do with trade deals with misaligned singletons). Intrinsic curiosity would be a pretty dominant reason to do nature/history sims among life-descended species though.
I think the average quiet regime is more likely to just not ever do large scale industry. If you have an organization whose mission was to maintain a low activity condition for a million years, there are organizational tendencies to invent reasons to continue maintaining those conditions (though maybe those don’t matter as much in high tech conditions where cultural drift can be prevented?), or it’s likely that they were maintaining those conditions because the conditions were just always the goal. For instance, if they had constitutionalised conservationism as a core value, holding even the dead dust of mars sacred.
On “cold computing”: to clarify, the piece I linked to was not about aestivation / waiting. It was about using “cold computing” right away.
The comment from gwern lists some reasons that may speak against “cold computing” (in general) as playing a significant role in answering the Fermi question, but again, a question is how decisive those reasons are. Even if such reasons should lead us to think that “cold computing” plays no significant role with 95 percent confidence, it still seems worth avoiding the mistake of belief digitization: simply collapsing the complementary 5 percent down to 0.
In any case, the point about “cold computing” was merely a disjunctive possibility; the broader point about observer prevalence being unclear in ‘grabby vs. quiet expansionist scenarios that include sims’ does not rest on that particular possibility.
On simulations: I think it can make sense to set the simulation argument aside, at least provisionally, for a couple of reasons:
The hypothesis that ancestor simulations (e.g. exact copies of your current conscious experience) are impossible to create seems like a plausible hypothesis that is worth exploring in its own right. (One can think that it is worth exploring even if one believes that faithful ancestor simulations are most likely possible.)
Even if we grant that ancestor simulations are possible and trivially feasible, it still makes sense to explore the non-sim (or pre-sim) case, since that would presumably apply to the original simulators (if we assume an ancestor simulation picture in which our world at least roughly matches the original simulators’ world). After all, if the anthropic argument holds for the OG simulators, then it would also hold for their ancestor simulations, assuming that those simulations really are ancestor simulations (somewhat analogously to a proof by induction). In this way, the ‘non-sim case’ seemingly has significant implications for what kind of simulation one should expect to be in (at least given the preceding assumptions).
I see. I glossed it as the variant I considered to be more relevant to the firmi question, but on reflection I’m not totally sure the aestivation hypothesis is all that relevant to the firmi question either… (I expect that there is visible activity a civ could do prior to the cooling of the universe to either prepare for it or accelerate it).
I don’t think the point of running them is to create exact copies, usually it would be to develop statistics about the possible outcomes, or to watch histories like your own. The distribution of outcomes for a bunch of fictional but era-appropriate generated humans may end up being roughly the same as the distribution of outcomes for the same exact population but with random perturbations along the way.
Refuting 3: Life/history simulations under visible/grabby civs would far outnumber natural origin civs under quiet regimes.
If one includes sims, grabby civs would possibly but not necessarily have more observers (like us) than quiet expansionist civs. For example, the expected number of sims may be roughly the same, or even larger, in quiet expansionist scenarios that involve a deadline/shift (cf. sec. 4).[1] There’s also the possibility that computation could be more efficient in quiet regimes (some have argued along these lines, though I’m by no means saying it’s correct; I’m not sure if we currently understand physics well enough to make confident pronouncements either way).
But yes, the argument outlined in Section 3 was limited to “base reality” scenarios. Conditional on you not being in a simulation (e.g. if exact sims of your conscious experience are not possible), the anthropic argument in Section 3 suggests that you’re in a quiet expansionist scenario, or in a quiet expansionist region within a mixed scenario. Conditional on you being in a simulation, it seems unclear.
Why might it be even larger? Intuitively, one might think that grabby civs could start simulating earlier, since they don’t have to wait and be quiet. But in the quiet expansionist model, expansionist civ origin dates would, in expectation, be significantly earlier, since we could be past the point where they’ve fully colonized. That is, in a grabby model, we’d now be pre-deadline, whereas we may be “post-deadline” in the quiet expansionist model — indeed, we most likely would be if the hard-steps model is correct. So the expansionist civs would be considerably older (they could even be much older) in the quiet expansionist vs. the grabby model. Thus, if we only look at the past, it’s conceivable that quiet civs would be able to run more sims, even if they have considerably fewer sims per colonized volume (as they might make up for it by having far more time and volume).
At any rate, given the apparent size of the cosmic future compared to the past, what matters most for the expected number of sims is hardly earliness (e.g. full cosmic expansion at 9 vs. 15 billion years), but arguably more something like future willingness and capacity to devote resources toward simulations. And when it comes to the willingness aspect, I can see some reasons to think that civs that started out as quiet expansionists up till our point (not necessarily staying that way) might have more incentive to simulate vs. grabby ones. For example, the strategic situation and motives in quiet expansionist scenarios would plausibly be more concerned with potential adversaries from elsewhere, and civs in such scenarios may thus be significantly more inclined to simulate the developmental trajectories of potential adversaries from elsewhere. Of course, this is speculative, but it serves to show that the picture with sims is complicated and the upshots are non-obvious.
The aestivation hypothesis was refuted by gwern as soon as it was posted and then again by charles bennet and robin hanson. Afaik, the argument was simple: being able to do stuff later doesn’t create a disincentive from doing visible stuff now. Cold computing isn’t relevant to the firmi hypothesis.
Huh, so I guess this could be one of the very rare situations where I think it’s important to acknowledge the simulation argument, because assuming it’s false could force you to reach implausible conclusions about techno-eschatology. Though I can’t see a practical need to be right about techno-eschatology, that kind of thing is an intrinsic preference.
I haven’t been able to think of a lot of reasons a civ would simulate nature beyond intrinsic curiosity. That’s a good one (another one I periodically consider and then cringe from has to do with trade deals with misaligned singletons). Intrinsic curiosity would be a pretty dominant reason to do nature/history sims among life-descended species though.
I think the average quiet regime is more likely to just not ever do large scale industry. If you have an organization whose mission was to maintain a low activity condition for a million years, there are organizational tendencies to invent reasons to continue maintaining those conditions (though maybe those don’t matter as much in high tech conditions where cultural drift can be prevented?), or it’s likely that they were maintaining those conditions because the conditions were just always the goal. For instance, if they had constitutionalised conservationism as a core value, holding even the dead dust of mars sacred.
On “cold computing”: to clarify, the piece I linked to was not about aestivation / waiting. It was about using “cold computing” right away.
The comment from gwern lists some reasons that may speak against “cold computing” (in general) as playing a significant role in answering the Fermi question, but again, a question is how decisive those reasons are. Even if such reasons should lead us to think that “cold computing” plays no significant role with 95 percent confidence, it still seems worth avoiding the mistake of belief digitization: simply collapsing the complementary 5 percent down to 0.
In any case, the point about “cold computing” was merely a disjunctive possibility; the broader point about observer prevalence being unclear in ‘grabby vs. quiet expansionist scenarios that include sims’ does not rest on that particular possibility.
On simulations: I think it can make sense to set the simulation argument aside, at least provisionally, for a couple of reasons:
The hypothesis that ancestor simulations (e.g. exact copies of your current conscious experience) are impossible to create seems like a plausible hypothesis that is worth exploring in its own right. (One can think that it is worth exploring even if one believes that faithful ancestor simulations are most likely possible.)
Even if we grant that ancestor simulations are possible and trivially feasible, it still makes sense to explore the non-sim (or pre-sim) case, since that would presumably apply to the original simulators (if we assume an ancestor simulation picture in which our world at least roughly matches the original simulators’ world). After all, if the anthropic argument holds for the OG simulators, then it would also hold for their ancestor simulations, assuming that those simulations really are ancestor simulations (somewhat analogously to a proof by induction). In this way, the ‘non-sim case’ seemingly has significant implications for what kind of simulation one should expect to be in (at least given the preceding assumptions).
I see. I glossed it as the variant I considered to be more relevant to the firmi question, but on reflection I’m not totally sure the aestivation hypothesis is all that relevant to the firmi question either… (I expect that there is visible activity a civ could do prior to the cooling of the universe to either prepare for it or accelerate it).
I don’t think the point of running them is to create exact copies, usually it would be to develop statistics about the possible outcomes, or to watch histories like your own. The distribution of outcomes for a bunch of fictional but era-appropriate generated humans may end up being roughly the same as the distribution of outcomes for the same exact population but with random perturbations along the way.
Yeah.