To get a good prediction market, we need more participation than the EA community would provide at its current size.
This is going to be a problem where the superset—creating a prediction market accessible by everyone—is easier to solve than the specific case—making a prediction market for the EA community.
Prediction Book is already taking on this role—a Prediction market by EAs—and would welcome help.
Prediction markets benefit a lot from liquidity. Making it EA specific doesn’t seem to gain all that much. But EAs should definitely practice forecasting formally and getting rewarded for reliable predictions.
This comment has a lot of spelling mistakes and it’s hard to understand. (I’m guessing you wrote it on mobile.) Can you go over it and remove the spelling mistakes?
To get a good prediction market, we need more participation than the EA community would provide at its current size.
This is going to be a problem where the superset—A prediction market accessible by every one—is easier to solve than the specific case—prediction market for the EA community.
Prediction is already taking on this role—a prediction market by EAs—and would welcome help.
To get a good prediction market, we need more participation than the EA community would provide at its current size.
This is going to be a problem where the superset—creating a prediction market accessible by everyone—is easier to solve than the specific case—making a prediction market for the EA community.
Prediction Book is already taking on this role—a Prediction market by EAs—and would welcome help.
edit: fixed spelling
Prediction markets benefit a lot from liquidity. Making it EA specific doesn’t seem to gain all that much. But EAs should definitely practice forecasting formally and getting rewarded for reliable predictions.
This comment has a lot of spelling mistakes and it’s hard to understand. (I’m guessing you wrote it on mobile.) Can you go over it and remove the spelling mistakes?
My best translation...
To get a good prediction market, we need more participation than the EA community would provide at its current size.
This is going to be a problem where the superset—A prediction market accessible by every one—is easier to solve than the specific case—prediction market for the EA community.
Prediction is already taking on this role—a prediction market by EAs—and would welcome help.
I believe “Predictipn bool” is supposed to be “PredictionBook”.
Not sure why that happened. Fixed.
It gave me a mental image of a drunk Ryan, slurring his words while making a coherent argument.