But it is outcomes that are morally close to extinction, the loss of most of humanity’s capacity and potential. Nuclear winter of a few degrees would not impact agriculture so adversely to cause this to happen. At this point you are multiplying so many small probabilities in series that you cannot call climate change a real x-risk without doing the same for so many other things that are equally likely to set a chain of bad events in motion.
I think it is useful to discuss qualifies as an X-risk. Asteroid/​comet impact is widely regarded as an X-risk, but a big one that could cause human extinction might only have a one in a million probability in the next 100 years. This is a 0.0001% reduction in humanity’s long term value. However, if you believe 80,000 Hours that nuclear war might have a ~3% chance in the next 100 years and this could reduce the long term future potential of humanity ~30%, that is a ~1% reduction in the future of humanity this century. So practically speaking, it is much more of an X-risk than asteroids are. Similarly, if you believe 80k that extreme climate change has a ~3% chance in the next 100 years and it reduces the long run potential by ~20%, that is a 0.6% reduction in the long term future of humanity. This again is much larger than asteroids. I personally think the nuclear risk is higher and the climate risk is lower than these numbers. It is true that some of the long-term impact could be classified as trajectory changes rather than traditional X risk. But I think most people are interested in trajectory changes as well.
I don’t think the 80k estimate on climate change is based on a thorough investigation of the science. I just don’t see how from the impacts estimated in the next 100 years, extreme climate change could be thought to be a greater than 0.1% ex risk. The heat stress of >4 degrees would be bad but if things started going that badly, I think the world would take action. In a few decades it will be much cheaper to abate GHGs and everyone will have an interest in doing so
I generally agree. The question is whether we should call something an X-risk by the impact if it happens alone or by the impact*probability. If the latter, and if comets are an X-risk, then we should call extreme climate change (and definitely nuclear war) an X-risk.
By that logic you are turning the idea of an x-risk into anything that really matters in the long run. So poverty is an x-risk too in this definition. That makes it not a useful definition and is also very different from how most people think about the term.
Extinction (or something just as bad): x-risk. I go by that.
But remember, X-risk is not just extinction—there are many routes to long term future impacts from nuclear war—some are mentioned here.
But it is outcomes that are morally close to extinction, the loss of most of humanity’s capacity and potential. Nuclear winter of a few degrees would not impact agriculture so adversely to cause this to happen. At this point you are multiplying so many small probabilities in series that you cannot call climate change a real x-risk without doing the same for so many other things that are equally likely to set a chain of bad events in motion.
I think it is useful to discuss qualifies as an X-risk. Asteroid/​comet impact is widely regarded as an X-risk, but a big one that could cause human extinction might only have a one in a million probability in the next 100 years. This is a 0.0001% reduction in humanity’s long term value. However, if you believe 80,000 Hours that nuclear war might have a ~3% chance in the next 100 years and this could reduce the long term future potential of humanity ~30%, that is a ~1% reduction in the future of humanity this century. So practically speaking, it is much more of an X-risk than asteroids are. Similarly, if you believe 80k that extreme climate change has a ~3% chance in the next 100 years and it reduces the long run potential by ~20%, that is a 0.6% reduction in the long term future of humanity. This again is much larger than asteroids. I personally think the nuclear risk is higher and the climate risk is lower than these numbers. It is true that some of the long-term impact could be classified as trajectory changes rather than traditional X risk. But I think most people are interested in trajectory changes as well.
I don’t think the 80k estimate on climate change is based on a thorough investigation of the science. I just don’t see how from the impacts estimated in the next 100 years, extreme climate change could be thought to be a greater than 0.1% ex risk. The heat stress of >4 degrees would be bad but if things started going that badly, I think the world would take action. In a few decades it will be much cheaper to abate GHGs and everyone will have an interest in doing so
I generally agree. The question is whether we should call something an X-risk by the impact if it happens alone or by the impact*probability. If the latter, and if comets are an X-risk, then we should call extreme climate change (and definitely nuclear war) an X-risk.
I see, yes good point.
By that logic you are turning the idea of an x-risk into anything that really matters in the long run. So poverty is an x-risk too in this definition. That makes it not a useful definition and is also very different from how most people think about the term.
Extinction (or something just as bad): x-risk. I go by that.