I think another framing/argument that would also make sense would be something like this: “We (i.e., longtermists) have substantial uncertainty about when relevant windows of opportunity will arise. As such, the longtermist community should have a portfolio which includes efforts targeted at both nearby windows and further away windows (just as it should have a portfolio which includes efforts targeted at a variety of different risks, technologies, countries, etc.). Simon Institute is focused on windows of opportunity other than extremely nearby existential risks.”
Yup, the portfolio approach makes a lot of sense to us. Also, as always, thanks for the summary and links!
A big question is how to define “extremely nearby”. Within the next 5 years, SI should be in a position to directly take meaningful action. Ironically, given SI’s starting point, making short-term action the main goal seems like it could make it less likely to attain the necessary capacity. There’s just no sustainable way in which a new actor can act urgently, as they first have to “stand the test of time” in the eyes of the established ones.
This sounds reasonable to me.
I think another framing/argument that would also make sense would be something like this: “We (i.e., longtermists) have substantial uncertainty about when relevant windows of opportunity will arise. As such, the longtermist community should have a portfolio which includes efforts targeted at both nearby windows and further away windows (just as it should have a portfolio which includes efforts targeted at a variety of different risks, technologies, countries, etc.). Simon Institute is focused on windows of opportunity other than extremely nearby existential risks.”
(This would be similar to Owen Cotton-Barratt’s arguments in this talk. There are also some relevant arguments and sources in my post Crucial questions about the optimal timing of work and donations.)
Yup, the portfolio approach makes a lot of sense to us. Also, as always, thanks for the summary and links!
A big question is how to define “extremely nearby”. Within the next 5 years, SI should be in a position to directly take meaningful action. Ironically, given SI’s starting point, making short-term action the main goal seems like it could make it less likely to attain the necessary capacity. There’s just no sustainable way in which a new actor can act urgently, as they first have to “stand the test of time” in the eyes of the established ones.