Thanks for the good points. Here is the same graph for the United States (US). The income before tax of the 1 % of people with the most income was supposedly 20.4 % in 1913, and 20.7 % in 2024. I am sharing data for the US because it covers a long period (111 years), and āhas been the worldās largest economy since about 1900ā until 2015.
Re: betsāI am highly uncertain about AI timelines myself. Amongst the EA/āAI community, I think my timelines would be considered ālongāāI expect major advancements in robotics will be needed for AI to displace more than about 20% of the current jobs in developed countries, and I donāt expect that could happen within the next 10 years.
Thanks for the good points. Here is the same graph for the United States (US). The income before tax of the 1 % of people with the most income was supposedly 20.4 % in 1913, and 20.7 % in 2024. I am sharing data for the US because it covers a long period (111 years), and āhas been the worldās largest economy since about 1900ā until 2015.
I remain open to bets against short timelines for transformative AI (TAI), or what they supposedly imply, up to 10 k$. Do you see any that we could make?
Re: betsāI am highly uncertain about AI timelines myself. Amongst the EA/āAI community, I think my timelines would be considered ālongāāI expect major advancements in robotics will be needed for AI to displace more than about 20% of the current jobs in developed countries, and I donāt expect that could happen within the next 10 years.