AI forecasting is the process of trying to predict a variety of outcomes related to AI, such as when human-level AI will emerge (AI timelines) and what impacts it will have.

Further reading

Cotra, Ajeya (2020) Draft report on AI timelines, LessWrong, September 18.

Davidson, Tom (2021) Semi-informative priors over AI timelines, Open Philanthropy, March 25.

Gruetzemacher, Ross et al. (2020) Forecasting AI progress: a research agenda, arXiv:2008.01848 [Cs].

Koehler, Arden, Robert Wiblin & Keiran Harris (2020) Danny Hernandez on forecasting and the drivers of AI progress, 80,000 Hours, May 22.

Wiblin, Robert & Keiran Harris (2018) How well can we actually predict the future? Katja Grace on why expert opinion isn’t a great guide to AI’s impact and how to do better, 80,000 Hours, August 21.

External links

AI Forecasting Dictionary. A set of standards and conventions for precisely interpreting AI and auxiliary terms.

AI timelines. List of publications by AI Impacts.

Related entries

AI governance | AI alignment | AI Impacts | estimation of existential risk | forecasting | long-range forecasting | quantum computing | tabletop exercises