I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.
I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.