I think it’s important to verify theories that seem obvious by thinking about precise predictions the theories make. The AI and EMH post attempts to analyze precise predictions made by the theory that “the market doesn’t expect TAI soon”, and for that reason I think the post makes a valuable contribution.
That said, it is still unclear to me whether interest rates will actually rise as investors realize the potential for TAI. If news of TAI causes investors to become more optimistic about investment, potentially because of the promise of higher lifespans, or the fear of missing out on extreme relative wealth etc., that could easily cause a shift in the supply curve for loanable funds to the right, lowering the interest rate. This makes one of the central predictions in the post unreliable IMO, and that undermines the post’s thesis.
So, overall I agree with you that the market is not currently pricing in TAI, and like you I believe that for ordinary informal reasons, such as the fact that investors rarely talk about explosive growth in public. The post itself, however, while interesting, didn’t move my credences as much as the informal evidence.
I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.
I think it’s important to verify theories that seem obvious by thinking about precise predictions the theories make. The AI and EMH post attempts to analyze precise predictions made by the theory that “the market doesn’t expect TAI soon”, and for that reason I think the post makes a valuable contribution.
That said, it is still unclear to me whether interest rates will actually rise as investors realize the potential for TAI. If news of TAI causes investors to become more optimistic about investment, potentially because of the promise of higher lifespans, or the fear of missing out on extreme relative wealth etc., that could easily cause a shift in the supply curve for loanable funds to the right, lowering the interest rate. This makes one of the central predictions in the post unreliable IMO, and that undermines the post’s thesis.
So, overall I agree with you that the market is not currently pricing in TAI, and like you I believe that for ordinary informal reasons, such as the fact that investors rarely talk about explosive growth in public. The post itself, however, while interesting, didn’t move my credences as much as the informal evidence.
I found your argument more interesting than the other “rebuttals.” Halperin et.al’s core argument is that there’s a disjunction between EMH on AI and soonish TAI, and suggests this as evidence against soonish TAI.
The other rebuttals gave evidence for one fork in this disjunction (that EMH does not apply to AI), but your argument, if correct, suggests that the disjunction might not be there in the first place.