I suspect your figures for Open Phil are pretty off on both the scale of people and the scale of the number of grants. I would guess (only counting people with direct grantmaking authority) OP longtermism would have:
5-6 people on Claire’s team (longtermist CB)
1-2 people on alignment
(Yes, this feels shockingly low to me as well)
2-5 people on biosecurity
3-6 people on AI governance
probably other people I’m missing
Also looking at their website, it looks like there’s a lag for when grants are reported (similar to us) but before May 2023, there appears to be 10-20 public grants reported per month (just looking at their grants database and filtering on longtermism). I don’t know how many non-public grants they give out but I’d guess it’s ~10-40% of the total.
First order, I think it’s reasonable to think that OP roughly gives out a similar number of grants to us but at 10-20 times the dollar amount per grant.
This is not accounting for how some programs that OP would classify as a single program would be counted as multiple grants by our ontology, e.g. Century Fellowship.
Sorry, I meant to just refer to the Open Phil longtermist community building team, which felt like the team that would most likely be able to take over some of the grant load, and I know much less about the other teams. Edited to correct that.
Agree that I underestimated things here. Agree that OP grants are vastly larger, which makes up a amount of the difference in grant-capacity per staff. Also additionally the case that OP seems particularly low on AI Alignment grant capacity, which is where most of the grants that I am most excited about would fall into, which formed a bunch of my aggregate impression.
I suspect your figures for Open Phil are pretty off on both the scale of people and the scale of the number of grants. I would guess (only counting people with direct grantmaking authority) OP longtermism would have:
5-6 people on Claire’s team (longtermist CB)
1-2 people on alignment
(Yes, this feels shockingly low to me as well)
2-5 people on biosecurity
3-6 people on AI governance
probably other people I’m missing
Also looking at their website, it looks like there’s a lag for when grants are reported (similar to us) but before May 2023, there appears to be 10-20 public grants reported per month (just looking at their grants database and filtering on longtermism). I don’t know how many non-public grants they give out but I’d guess it’s ~10-40% of the total.
First order, I think it’s reasonable to think that OP roughly gives out a similar number of grants to us but at 10-20 times the dollar amount per grant.
This is not accounting for how some programs that OP would classify as a single program would be counted as multiple grants by our ontology, e.g. Century Fellowship.
Sorry, I meant to just refer to the Open Phil longtermist community building team, which felt like the team that would most likely be able to take over some of the grant load, and I know much less about the other teams. Edited to correct that.
Agree that I underestimated things here. Agree that OP grants are vastly larger, which makes up a amount of the difference in grant-capacity per staff. Also additionally the case that OP seems particularly low on AI Alignment grant capacity, which is where most of the grants that I am most excited about would fall into, which formed a bunch of my aggregate impression.